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Tag Archives: stock market trading

  • A Couple of Pullback Divergence Trades

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report December 9 , 2013

    We had a GREAT webinar this weekend. Thanks go out to the good folks at Ninja Trader, but even more so, thanks to those of you that were in attendance. If you missed it or would like to review it, please check out the recording of it at this link some time after December 10. In today's blog I would like to show you a couple more set-ups that I am looking at this week and describe some of my analysis of them.  Hopefully these will work out as well as the crude oil analysis from our most recent blog.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report December 9 , 2013

    http://youtu.be/FxujO6pdCPg

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • What My Job Is and Isn't

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 15

    Some think that as a technical analyst it is my job to try and predict the future of the markets I am studying. Not so!  I would rephrase my job description like this… it is my job to come up with  analysis that  provides a  short term bias that is constantly being updated, a medium term biases that takes longer to change, and a  long term bias that informs my investments more than my trading.  However, these are not predictions, they are biases.  This may sound like an apology, but it is not. Over the past year the market has moved pretty much in the directions I have expected (and published).  The way I see it, my job is not to predict the markets I trade; it is merely to design good trades for whichever direction the market might go. I cannot force my will on the group mentality which is the market.  At best, all I can do is be properly prepared to meet the market and her participants in the process buying and selling. That means having good entry and exit strategies in either direction. It also means having a perspective that is as accurate as possible. This is where experience and sophisticated technical analysis helps.  However, both of those come at a price.

    So, what do we see for the coming week? In the S&P emini we currently rest around 1420. As noted last week we could easily see the current slide in the American equities market take us back to support levels established in March and reinforced last August around 1400.  1465 will act as resistance if we make it back there this week. As you are trading remember, this is earnings season and election season… anything could happen to spook or inspire a security or even the market as a whole. Economic and political surprises should not be unexpected at this time in the cycle; and fear has a better chance of inspiring a major move in the market than greed.

    Below are the charts of some of the symbols that I am looking at this week for my trading watch list. There are examples both long and short. Each contains a little explanation of the analysis visible on the chart. If you have any questions about the indicators on these charts please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    _____Longs_____

    HCA

    (A TE-123, pullback divergence setup... Trend  Exhaustion 1 with a simultaneous  Pullback 23. Wave counter shows that this may be the end of Wave 4.  This is occurring at a logical support level and above the long-term Triple Trender)

    NPSP

    (A breakout of a Bull Flag and the resistance trendline accompanied by a Pullback 23. This one may backtrack to breakout level @ $10.07... target is $12.05)

    WDR

    (A pullback divergence with a Pullback 23 signal.  This one is also at a support level above the  long-term Triple Trender)

    _____Shorts_____

    EXC

    (A bearish pullback divergence below the long-term Triple Trender, accompanied by a Pullback 23 signal. This is occurring at a logical resistance level of previous lows.)

    PSA

    (A Bear Flag breakdown accompanied by an up trendline breakdown. All three ‘Radars’ are bearish too.)

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Time to be Careful

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 26

    Well, clearly the American stock indexes are drawing back and everyone wants to know if this is the end of the rally, or is this a buying opportunity? I look at hundreds of charts every weekend and I must say that I am seeing a lot of bearish pivot divergences in the recent highs. Of course, we all know that strongly trending markets are known for giving several false divergence signals before they finally run out of steam. That is what I think we are witnessing here. In the long run (6 months - 1 yr) I am still bullish; I believe that this rally still has more fuel in the form of sidelined money that will eventually push some stocks higher. For the short term, however, I’m tightening my stops and I am being a bit more cautious about the set-ups I’m willing to trade. I am,nonetheless, still looking for good pullback opportunities as well as valid breakouts from congestion.

    Here are a few items from this week’s watch list and a little explanation of the technical analysis indicated on the charts. If you want further explanation of any of the indicators on the charts below you can find a ‘legend’ at this link.

    _____Longs_____

    ESL

    (Here we see a breakout of the down trendline and a continuation of the Bull Flag progression after a nice pullback into the Triple Trender.)

    UTIW

    (A breakout from the down trendline after a pullback into the Triple Trender. Also note the strengthening Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator. )

    _____Shorts_____

    TOL

    (Note the diminishing bullishness in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator creating a bearish pivot divergence. I would not short this stock, however, until all three Trenders are bearish and Radar3 Trend Strength crosses below zero. )

    AEC

    (I like the recent Overbought TE-1 signal and the selling pressure indicated by the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator.)

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

3 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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