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Tag Archives: NASDAQ futures

  • Look Down to Profit

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report January 27 , 2014

    It's been quite a while since I posted, and several of you have been enthusiastic in in your encouragement for me to get another post up here. Well, this is a great week for inaugurating the Scan Sentry Report for 2014. In this report I go into some in depth inter-market analysis and let you know what I think about  the recent drop in the US stock market.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report January 27 , 2013

    http://youtu.be/k_-a7WhLAQA

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Topping Out or Pulling Back?

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report August 19, 2013

    Welcome to this week's Scan Sentry Report. As a sign of appreciation for following the Scan Sentry Report I would like to offer each of you 15% off of any purchase you make from our traders' toolbox from now until I post the next edition. This offer is good for tool-kits or single indicators, and the offer is good for every platform that we support. (Sorry, this offer does not apply to custom programming services). I hope you take advantage of this rare offer and fill your own toolbox with some of those tools you have always wanted. All you have to do is mention the "Scan Sentry Report Special" when you order your tools. Consider this as our effort to say "Thank You" for being a part of the Jan Arps' Traders' Toolbox family.

    This week in the Scan Sentry video I go over the synthetic symbols Watchlist to see what is currently strong and what is week in the American markets. I also provide a little analysis of the gold market and comment on the strength that we have seen in that market recently. I also share a little bit of my analysis of the current crude-oil market .

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report August 19, 2013

    http://youtu.be/nSfEH7I5iTw

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Take Another Look

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report July 15, 2013

    In this week's video presentation I look at the American indexes and show how I scan for one of my favorite divergence setups.  I also provide my analysis of the gold and crude oil markets for the coming week. As I have in the past several installments, I also show how I use the Scan Sentry Toolkit to analyze the strength or weakness of market indexes, sectors, and market regions.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report July 15, 2013


    http://youtu.be/CJ-mNzwyaZ0

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Getting it Right, or Making Money?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report Feb 25th 2013

    A lot has been written about the difference between being right in your technical analysis and making money with your technical analysis.  Analyzing the market correctly and making money with that analysis are two different issues. How many times have you foreseen a market continuation, reversal, or correction and gotten into a trade only to find that the market had one more thrust against you, taking out your stop just before moving in your direction. Or maybe the market ran away from you before you took an opportunity to enter. Perhaps the technical analysis is correct but the execution is not clearly defined or precisely executed. Trading psychology and a good trading plan are both important to help with this issue. There are countless trading psychologists out there to help address this problem, but that is not my purview. Specific rules in a trading plan are essential, and the plan must be verified with testing and experience.

    A good trading plan should not only focus on the technical analysis, but also include risk tolerance, stop loss, and trade management (including profit targets and trailing stops). However, having a viable trading plan is not enough in and of itself; you have to follow the plan as well.  A trading plan is like a gym membership, it is only worth anything if you use it; otherwise it will just cost you money. A well respected trader once said, “Your trading rules are your employees; in order to make money you must let them do their jobs”. I couldn’t agree more. It is important that your trading career be based on a good foundation, so I encourage you to write out your plan, and then test it, and then test it some more. There are two ways to test it: 1.) execute it manually on a simulated account, or 2.) program an automated strategy to run and test on historical data. I recommend both approaches. If you need help programming your ideas for testing purposes, be sure to contact us at inf0@janarps.com and we can point you in the right direction.

    And now for some technical analysis….

    Our short gold trade over the last couple of weeks was ‘spot on’ netting 87 points on the move to our target at 1560. We also did well shorting the S&P last week.  In my previous post I  discussed watching the Russell and NASDAQ charts to anticipate action in the S&P. Well the Russell didn’t take off, and the NASDAQ didn’t breakdown yet. Let’s see what we have in store for this week. You will find charts and analysis below.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    The Charts and Analysis

    Index Futures:

    S&P  Futures

    (We got the pullback into the Triple Trender we have been anticipating since the Trend Exhaustion 3 signal 6 bars ago and the recent Bearish Divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed. Our trend indicators are still bullish, but I would not be surprised to see this correction move as far down as support at $1462. Note Radar1 Fear/Greed is starting to show sellers stronger than buyers.)

    Russell  Futures

    (Our analysis shows this correction as a pullback in a bullish market. Note that we don’t see any divergences or significant selling strength yet in Radar1 Fear/Greed. Also neither the Triple Trender nor the Radar3 Trend Strength Index have confirmed a bearish trend.  )

    NASDAQ  Futures

    (This market did move downward but it has not yet broken down. It is still trading within the narrow range by which it has been bound since the new year. However, Radar 1 is showing that the sellers are stronger than buyers at this point. A close below the long-term Triple Trender will cause me to be significantly more bearish on the American markets in general.  )

    Equities Setups:

    (Sell Short) ESV- Ensco plc.

    (A bearish pivot divergence with Radar1 Fear/Greed  at the recent high. Radar 3 Trend Strength and Triple Trender both confirmed bearish. A trendline pullback signal to the downside, and the wave counter suggests we have completed wave-5 and are beginning reversal wave-A. )

    (Buy) ZNGA- Zenga.

    (A bullish Pullback 23 setting up after a pullback into the recently synchronized bullish Triple Trender. The pullback was also to the breakout price which is good support.  Upside target is the gap-fill at $4.45 )

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (Gold dropped to a significant support level around $1560 this week. If it closes below $1540 the next downside target would be around $1515. More likely we will see it move sideways for a while.  )

    CRUDE OIL

    (Last week I noted the strengthening sell pressure in the Radar1 Fear/Greed and the trend strength change in Radar3 Trend Strength. This bearish orientation is now confirmed in Radar3 and the Triple Trender. Note the bearish breakdown from the up trendline this past week. Since Radar1Fear/Greed is currently making lower lows a bullish 'Pullback Divergence' could be developing in the next few weeks. Look for this current down move to find support around $91.25. A close below the Bull Flag low of $92.52 will negate the current Bull Flag and the green target dots will stop plotting )

    Forex:

    (Sell Short)-USDCHF

    ( Bearish Trend Exhaustion1 at the down trendline. Radar1 Fear/Greed did not give us a bullish reversal divergence at the last low, so I expect another thrust down. Beware: Radar3 Trend Stength is bullish! )

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Analysis: The Plan and the Markets

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report January 7, 2013

    Welcome to a new year and lots of new trading opportunities, I look forward to sharing the  journey with you. This year I am more excited than ever about the possibilities that lie in wait within the markets. In preparation for the new year I have been setting my goals (daily, weekly, and monthly) , reviewing my trading rules, going over my trading log, and committing myself to improving my physical habits as well as my trading habits. All of these are important parts of a successful trading plan.   For most of us, trading is a solo business. That is why it is so important to have clear rules in your trading plan, and to develop the discipline to follow them. The rules in your trading plan are there to protect your account and to help you execute your business. I once heard a successful trader state that he considers the parameters of his trading plan to be his ‘employees’; and you must allow them to do their job in order for the business to run profitably. I find a lot of truth in that.

    And now for a little bit of market analysis… As many of you may know, I like to compare the S&P futures contract to that of the NASDAQ. At this point we see a lot of the same technical indications on both charts, with one big difference. Both have risen close to 10% since the November 16 lows; however,  the S&P is already testing the mid-September highs whereas the NASDAQ is still 5% away from that threshold. This is because the NASDAQ fell quite a bit further than the S&P in the autumn 2012 correction. As I look at the current technical analysis, I don’t see the buyers stepping up in either market with enough conviction to spark a significant rally at this point. I use the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator, which is still red and pointing down in both of these markets, to draw this conclusion. As a consequence I expect  the S&P to be rejected at this test of 1461 and to trade downward until we see a bit more parity between that contract and the NASDAQ. As I have noted earlier, at some point this year I expect the S&P to be making significant new highs, but this week I don’t expect to see much more than perhaps a bit of “stop running” above the previous highs.

    Index Futures:

    S&P Index

    (Here we see the price testing September 14th highs. Although the Trenders and Radar3 Trend Strength are bullish, note that the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator does not show buying strength, and Radar2 Price Leader is overbought.)

    NASDAQ Index

    (Although the technical indicators are about the same as the chart above, this market has more upside potential than the S&P. Nonetheless, there are still several levels of resistance to get through before this contract can test the September highs. Note the bearish pivot divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed. )

    As we enter into this new year, I want to show you how I am looking at several of my favorite markets. On the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Other Charts and Analysis

    Equities Setups:

    (Buy) IRM- Iron Mountain Inc.

    (Notice the strengthening Radar1 Fear/Greed after the bullish pivot divergence. Also note that Radar3 Trend Strength is beginning to show trend strength.  However, the Radar2 Price Leader is currently overbought; I would look for a pullback into the Triple Trender before entering long.  )

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (Our Triple Trender and Radar3 Trend Strength indicator are both bearish, and the Radar2 Price Leader shows a bearish pullback divergence. This indicates the bears control this market right now. However, if the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator starts to turn more bullish at this point we would see a bullish pivot divergence which could enable this market to potentially trade through resistance at $1681 and test the next resistance level around $1707.)

    CRUDE OIL

    (This is a market which is showing bullish indications. The Triple Trender, the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator and Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator are all bullish. Note the new highs in Radar1. However, we have an overbought Radar2 Price Leader and we are coming up against a resistance level created by the highs of the October consolidation around  $94.43 )

    Forex:

    GBPUSD

    (After testing the mid September highs of 1.6300 in the middle of December, and again a few days ago, this market shows bearish pivot divergences in the Radar1 Fear/Greed  and Radar2 Price Leader. Furthermore, the Triple Trender is bearish. All we need for downside confirmation is for the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator to turn pink… the color of a bearish trend. )

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • The Secret is Out

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report December 3

    This week I want to share a secret with you, but you have to promise not to tell anyone else. I’m sharing this with you because you are one of our valued readers of this blog, and as such we are like family. So let’s keep this in the family. For your eyes only I will describe precisely how one of our best proprietary signals is generated.

    You might have noticed on the charts I present each week a signal dot with “PB23” text above or below the dot. This is what we call a Pullback 23 and it identifies a pullback in a trend. It is generated by a confluence of conditions from two of our best proprietary indicators … the Radar2 Price Leader and the Radar3 Trend Strength Index. Combining the names of Radar2 and Radar3 we get 23, and the fact that it identifies a pullback in a trend gives it its name ‘Pullback 23’.  Here’s how it works. Shhhh…….

    First we want to identify the orientation and strength of the trend. For this we use the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator which plots a histogram up or down identifying the strength and direction of the trend. The histogram is colored blue and pointing up when the market is trending upward, and it is pink and pointing down when the market is trending downward. However, if the color of the Radar3 indicator does not match the up/down orientation of the histogram this identifies trend weakness which could be a pullback in the trend. For example if the histogram is pointing down but the bars are blue, or the histogram is pointing up and the bars are pink this signals weakness in the trend which could identify a pullback opportunity.  Once the Radar 3 Trend Strength indicator has identified a pullback possibility, we look for price acceleration back in the direction of the predominant trend. For this we turn to the Radar2 Price Leader Acceleration Oscillator. This two line oscillator monitors the acceleration and deceleration of the price movement and thereby provides the quickest possible indication of impending changes in price direction. For a bullish pullback we are looking for an acceleration signal which is generated when the fast line crosses over the slow line. A bearish or decelerating signal is generated when the fast line crosses under the slow line. Once Radar3 identifies weakness in the trend and Radar2 identifies acceleration or deceleration back in the direction of the trend, that is when the Pullback 23 signal dot is generated. The chart below shows you how this works….

    I want to show you how I am looking at a few of my favorite markets this week. On the charts below I explain my analysis for several of the most commonly traded markets using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    The Charts and Analysis

    Index Futures:

    NASDAQ

    (I am seeing a bearish Trend Exhaustion 1 and Pullback 23. Although the Triple Trender has just turned bullish, Radar3 Trend Strength does not yet confirm this shift in trend orientation. If Radar3 Trend Strength crosses above the zero centerline then exit this trade.)

    Equities Setups:

    (Sell Short!) MRK- Merck & Co.

    (A bearish pullback 23, Radar2 Price Leader also forms a bearish Pullback Divergence. Stop-loss is a close across the long-term Trender @$45.46)

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (The technical indications of this market show that, for the next week, the downside is still stronger than the upside. Note the Triple Trender is more bearish than bullish, as is the Radar3 Trend Strength Index. The Radar2 Price Leader also shows price still decelerating. Note the recent bearish Trender Pullback signal.)

    CRUDE OIL

    (This is still a range bound market in an overall downtrend.  Until we break out of this range, the only trade opportunities I see are short term trades which fade the extremes of this range).

    Forex:

    EURUSD

    (As noted last week this market is more bullish than bearish. I still expect to see this one grind upwards at least until it meets resistance at the down trendline.)

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

6 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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