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Tag Archives: investing

  • Sell in May???

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report May 4 , 2014

    This week we look at the relative strength of several market sectors to see through the recent market uncertainty and deduce how some of the "Big Money" has been responding to the current market conditions.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report May 4 , 2014


    http://youtu.be/k_-a7WhLAQA

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor an
  • Look Down to Profit

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report January 27 , 2014

    It's been quite a while since I posted, and several of you have been enthusiastic in in your encouragement for me to get another post up here. Well, this is a great week for inaugurating the Scan Sentry Report for 2014. In this report I go into some in depth inter-market analysis and let you know what I think about  the recent drop in the US stock market.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report January 27 , 2013

    http://youtu.be/k_-a7WhLAQA

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Something New

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report September 9, 2013

    Welcome to this week's Scan Sentry Report. Once again, thank you to all of you who took advantage of our "Scan Sentry Report Customer Appreciation" sale recently.  We are glad to have you as part of the Jan Arps' Traders' Toolbox family.

    This week in the Scan Sentry video I show you an example of a custom tool we recently made for a customer. He wanted something that would identify the first pullback in a confirmed trend. I go on to demonstrate how I  integrate it into my spreadsheet analysis (RadarScreen) and into a universal stock scanner.  I also provide some technical analysis of some of the other markets that we typically look at in the Scan Sentry Report.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report September 9, 2013

    http://youtu.be/NptpUBSeju4

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Would You Care to Dance?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 1

    Trading the markets is like dancing with a fickle partner. It’s very important, however, that you let the market lead. If you do not then you will pay… much worse than just getting your toes stepped on.  If you do let the market lead and you pay attention to the subtle clues she gives you as to which direction she is tending, then you can find yourself  the envy of all of the others at the ball, gracefully moving back and forth with the most powerful being there. But remember, YOU MUST LET HER LEAD. If you try to lead she will humiliate you with her wily ways. So how do you read her subtle clues? Well, you need good sensors that telegraph her intentions to you as she herself is deciding to make her move. This is precisely what the study of technical analysis is designed to provide. However,  there is no substitute for an experiential education that enables you to perceive the nuances that separate the actionable signals from the others. When you make mistakes the market mistress will berate you (and your trading account) until you learn to humble yourself enough to perceive her will, not your own hopes and expectations. That is why I often encourage new traders to reassess their analysis frequently, as the markets morph from day to day. There is no way around it, this type of experiential education can be expensive; however, sophisticated technical analysis can help curb the costs significantly.

    Right now when I look at the American equities market as portrayed by the Emini-S&P futures contract, I see a pullback in an uptrend. Note how we retraced to the support/resistance level in the mid 1420’s , and how we see a bullish Pullback 23 setting up right at the up trendline. We’ve even got a bullish “Pullback Divergence” developing in the Radar2 Price Leader which also happens to be oversold right now.  We still have a Bull Flag target to achieve as well.  Radar1 Fear/Greed is not as strong as I like it; however I am fine with my bullish outlook until the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator drops below the previous lows of -25.76 on August 30 one month ago.

    Although I am bullish on the market in general, I will let the market mistress lead me where she will. That is why I like to look at both long and short trading possibilities in order to be ready to dance whichever direction she decides to step.  Below are some charts of some of the symbols that I have identified this week for my weekly trading watch list. Each contains a little explanation of the analysis visible on the chart. If you have any questions about the indicators on these charts please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    _____Longs_____

    CDNS

    (This is a Pullback 123 trade combining a Trend Exhaustion1 signal and a Pullback 23. This is occurring right at support and creating a bullish Pullback Divergence. )

    AM

    ( Another Pullback 123 pattern, this time as a breakout to new highs above the down trendline. )

    MDR

    (This is a bullish Pullback Divergence with Radar2 Price Leader identified by a combination of signals from Trend Exhaustion 1 and Pullback 23)

    _____Shorts_____

    MO

    (A bearish Pullback 23 into the Triple Trender creating a pullback divergence in the down trend.)

    CHD

    (Here we see a Pullback 23 signal at the short-term bearish Triple Trender).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Sellers Everywhere

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report May 20

    The mood on Wall Street seems to be one of 'flight to safety' again with the treasuries doing well amidst the recent equity sell-a-thon, and the precious metals starting to diverge from the plunging equity indexes. This selling appears to be more than simple profit-taking after an extended rally; which means we are not buying this as a pullback. After the S&P June e-mini futures contract broke below 1365, which appeared to me to be the accumulation price for the June contract in early March, anybody that had a long position on that contract was losing money.  I’m happy to say that the resulting sell-off over the last two weeks has been quite orderly providing ample opportunities to enter short. The selling has not had the personality of a panic… nonetheless, we certainly have not seen any herd of bulls willing to accumulate more positions as the price has been dropping.  This week I expect the selling to continue with pauses as it runs into support at 1275 and again at around 1250. The news pundits will give you lots of after-the-fact reasons for this sell-off, but few will tell you the real reason... there are more sellers than buyers!

    I generally try to trade in the direction of the overall market trend, this gives me wind at my back. Clearly the current trend is down and I expect to be selling short again this week. Please note that even though I do not expect to be trading on the long side, I am still preparing myself with buying opportunities in case the market does not do what I think it will do. Although, in general, my technical analysis has proven to give me an edge; the markets are a fickle mistress and she will do what she wants, not what I want or expect. As a consequence, my best strategy is to be prepared for the unexpected.

    In addition to the typical trading signals provided by the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit, this week’s selections have all been filtered by their relative performance compared to the S&P index ETF “SPY”. The long picks have all being doing better than the ‘spider’ over the past several weeks. The short picks have all been weaker than the index over the last several months.  As always, if you want more information about the indicators on the charts below please follow this link to a webpage with more information.

    Here are some of the symbols on this week's watchlist and why they are there.

    _____Longs_____

    T

    (AT&T broke out of a flag pattern and pulled back to the breakout price where we got a Pullback 23 signal. Also Radar1 Fear/Greed and Radar3 Trend Strength and the Triple Trender are all bullish in a very bearish market .)

    WG

    (With all three Triple Trenders bullish we also have a bullish Pullback 23. )

    LOGI

    (Another stock bucking the trend in a bearish market. In addition to the Arps Radars 1,2 and 3 and the Triple Trender all being bullish we also got  a recent Trendline breakout signal .)

    _____Shorts_____

    IMOS

    (Here we find a breakdown from a Bear Flag pattern which was the first pullback into the bearish Triple Trender accompanied by a breakdown across the up trendline . Also, Radar1 Fear/Greed just turned bearish after very weak buying.)

    SAPE

    (After pulling back into the bearish Triple Trender and filling the gap from early May we now get a bearish Pullback 23 signal.)

    COST

    (A pullback into the Triple Trender which created a ‘Pullback Divergence’ with the Radar2 Price Leader .)

    Again, last week’s selections did nicely. I only traded to the downside and did particularly well with ESRX. I hope you did too.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Check Out These Charts!

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 12

    In last week’s blog I discussed looking for pullback opportunities while the market is trending. And this past week was a good week for picking up a few more shares on the retracement… and for holding on to the shares I’ve already got.  As always, my stock scans are oriented toward early trend identification (which is hard to find these days), and pullbacks within the trend. This week I am turning to one of our new tools, our market Wave Analysis indicator to help identify some of my trading opportunities. I am also looking for signs of trend exhaustion, distribution, and decline for my potential short-term short positions. The Arps Scan Sentry tools which accompany most of my indicators make it easy to scan a universe of symbols for the trading set-ups which these indicators identify.

    Below you will find a few examples from my watchlist for this week. If you want an explanation of any of the indicators on these charts you can find a ‘legend’ at this link (I know that the link did not work last week, and I apologize… but I think that we fixed it).

    _____Longs_____

    LPS

    (Here is a nice breakout of the downtrend line and of the Flag pattern. The W3 and W4 signals indicate which wave patterns have been completed. This looks like the beginning of Wave-5).

    IRDM

    (Here’s another trendline breakout preceded by an oversold pullback which was  identified by Trend Exhaustion 1. The Triple Trender has just synchronized bullish and all three Radar tools are now bullish. Note the beginning of the Wave-5 in the Wave pattern analysis).

    QEP

    (A Pullback 23 signal after the first pullback into the bullish Triple Trender. I like to find Triple Trender synchronicity during the Wave 2 phase of the Wave analysis for early trend identification ).

    _____Shorts_____

    CHT

    (A pullback into the Triple Trender accompanied by an overbought Trend Exhaustion1 signal as well as a Pullback 23 signal. Note the gradually increasing bearishness of the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).

    CAVM

    (Here’s an example of the Triple Trender turning bearish about the same time that the Radar3 Trend Strength does. This follows a retracement to the pullback signal on the downtrend line. Notice the recent weakness of the buyers and the increasing selling pressure identified by the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

6 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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