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Tag Archives: Index Futures

  • Sell in May???

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report May 4 , 2014

    This week we look at the relative strength of several market sectors to see through the recent market uncertainty and deduce how some of the "Big Money" has been responding to the current market conditions.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report May 4 , 2014


    http://youtu.be/k_-a7WhLAQA

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor an
  • Look Down to Profit

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report January 27 , 2014

    It's been quite a while since I posted, and several of you have been enthusiastic in in your encouragement for me to get another post up here. Well, this is a great week for inaugurating the Scan Sentry Report for 2014. In this report I go into some in depth inter-market analysis and let you know what I think about  the recent drop in the US stock market.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report January 27 , 2013

    http://youtu.be/k_-a7WhLAQA

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • The Week Ahead

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report August 5, 2013

    I'm glad that you're here following this blog. I hope it helps you out. This week I look at the S&P and identify a few stocks setting up with one of my favorite setups.  I also take a look at the crude oil and gold markets and offer a bit of technical analysis of their current condition. As always, I welcome any comments that you might have.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report August 5, 201


    http://youtu.be/e6pgKbkLOc4

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • What a week!

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report July 25, 2013

    This week's video presentation looks at the American stock indexes and demonstrates how I scan the S&P 500 for a couple of my favorite trade setups.  I also provide my analysis of the gold and crude oil markets for the rest of the week. As I have in the past several installments, I also show how I use the Scan Sentry Toolkit to analyze the strength or weakness of market indexes, sectors, and market regions relative to the S&P index.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report July 25, 2013


    http://youtu.be/jYk06pRtiqA

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Take Another Look

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report July 15, 2013

    In this week's video presentation I look at the American indexes and show how I scan for one of my favorite divergence setups.  I also provide my analysis of the gold and crude oil markets for the coming week. As I have in the past several installments, I also show how I use the Scan Sentry Toolkit to analyze the strength or weakness of market indexes, sectors, and market regions.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report July 15, 2013


    http://youtu.be/CJ-mNzwyaZ0

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Oil and Gold and the S&P

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report June 13, 2013

    In this mid-week video presentation I go over my analysis of the S&P futures contract, gold, and crude oil.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report June 13, 2013
    http://youtu.be/MVcdH0yJfGE

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Extreme Markets!

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report April 15, 2013

    The Dow is making new all time highs, gold is dropping like a lead dirigible . What do we have to look forward to this week?

    This week's report is presented as a video presentation. Please click on the link below to watch it; and be sure to leave me some feedback here on the blog  page or on the video page letting me know if you like this new format.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report April 15th 2013

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNMk3eSH43E

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Watch This!

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 25, 2013

    This week's report is presented as a video presentation. Please click on the link below to watch it; and be sure to leave me some feedback here on the blog  page or on the video page letting me know if you like this new format.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report March 25

    http://youtu.be/EJTuPXXm4FI

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Upside or Down?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 18, 2013

    As far as the raging American stock indexes are concerned, the daily charts show nothing but a strong bullish trend. Now, we all know that this won’t last forever, and that there will be a correction, and one day a reversal; but when? Personally, I’m looking for a correction early this week, and I will explain why. Although the daily chart is extremely bullish, if we drill down to a 50,000 share chart of the S&P eMini we start to see some early bearish signals.  For instance there is a Trend Exhaustion 3 signal preceding the recent high, and a bearish reversal signal where the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator rolled over from bullish to bearish without ever turning blue while it was on the bullish side of zero.  I also see bearish pivot divergences in Radar1 Fear Greed. Now, I know that we commonly see divergences all the way up a strongly trending market like this one, but the other indications I mentioned will have me considering some short term  (day-trading) bearish setups early this week. However, if you only trade in the direction of the longer term trend, then clearly you will be looking for bullish opportunities.

    S&P  Futures (Daily)

    (All three Trenders are bullish as is Radar3 Trend Strength and Radar1 Fear/Greed. However, decelerating Radar2 Price Leader indicates we may see a correction down to one of the trendlines.)

    S&P  Futures (50,000 share chart)

    (Here we start to see some weakness in the uptrend. Note the Bearish divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed, and the bearish pattern in Radar3 Trend Strength. Also note the Trend Exhaustion 3 signal preceding the recent high. A breakdown below resistance at $1551 will cause the Triple Trender to confirm bearishness on this perspective.)

    Let’s take a look at some other charts…

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Other Charts and Analysis

    Equities Setups:

    (Sell Short) LCRX- Lam research.

    (Bearish Pivot Divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed at the peak, breakdown from the up-trendline. All three Trenders bearish, Radar3 just turned bearish and Radar1 Fear Greed is bearish . )

    (Buy) VTR- Ventas Inc.

    (A Pullback 23 signal and a Trend Exhaustion 1 signal combining in a bullish Pullback divergence with Radar2 Price Leader… this is also known as Trend Exhaustion 123. )

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (This market is more bearish than bullish as indicated by the Triple Trender, Radar3 Trend Strength and the juxtaposition of price to the up and down trendlines. I’m seeing a bearish Pullback 23 setting up, but I would not be surprised to see it grind up to the down trendline or one of the resistance lines before heading back down to support at $1560.  )

    CRUDE OIL

    (This is a market with bullish potential as demonstrated by the bullish pullback divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed. However, the Long-term Trender and Radar3 Trend Strength and Radar2 are all showing bearish indications so I am looking for this to move to the downside this week.)

    Forex:

    (Sell)-EURCHF

    ( After the upward pink Radar3 Trend Strength rolled over to confirm bearishness we get a bearish Pullback 23, also have bearish Radar1 Fear/Greed. Downside target is 1.217)

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Getting it Right, or Making Money?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report Feb 25th 2013

    A lot has been written about the difference between being right in your technical analysis and making money with your technical analysis.  Analyzing the market correctly and making money with that analysis are two different issues. How many times have you foreseen a market continuation, reversal, or correction and gotten into a trade only to find that the market had one more thrust against you, taking out your stop just before moving in your direction. Or maybe the market ran away from you before you took an opportunity to enter. Perhaps the technical analysis is correct but the execution is not clearly defined or precisely executed. Trading psychology and a good trading plan are both important to help with this issue. There are countless trading psychologists out there to help address this problem, but that is not my purview. Specific rules in a trading plan are essential, and the plan must be verified with testing and experience.

    A good trading plan should not only focus on the technical analysis, but also include risk tolerance, stop loss, and trade management (including profit targets and trailing stops). However, having a viable trading plan is not enough in and of itself; you have to follow the plan as well.  A trading plan is like a gym membership, it is only worth anything if you use it; otherwise it will just cost you money. A well respected trader once said, “Your trading rules are your employees; in order to make money you must let them do their jobs”. I couldn’t agree more. It is important that your trading career be based on a good foundation, so I encourage you to write out your plan, and then test it, and then test it some more. There are two ways to test it: 1.) execute it manually on a simulated account, or 2.) program an automated strategy to run and test on historical data. I recommend both approaches. If you need help programming your ideas for testing purposes, be sure to contact us at inf0@janarps.com and we can point you in the right direction.

    And now for some technical analysis….

    Our short gold trade over the last couple of weeks was ‘spot on’ netting 87 points on the move to our target at 1560. We also did well shorting the S&P last week.  In my previous post I  discussed watching the Russell and NASDAQ charts to anticipate action in the S&P. Well the Russell didn’t take off, and the NASDAQ didn’t breakdown yet. Let’s see what we have in store for this week. You will find charts and analysis below.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    The Charts and Analysis

    Index Futures:

    S&P  Futures

    (We got the pullback into the Triple Trender we have been anticipating since the Trend Exhaustion 3 signal 6 bars ago and the recent Bearish Divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed. Our trend indicators are still bullish, but I would not be surprised to see this correction move as far down as support at $1462. Note Radar1 Fear/Greed is starting to show sellers stronger than buyers.)

    Russell  Futures

    (Our analysis shows this correction as a pullback in a bullish market. Note that we don’t see any divergences or significant selling strength yet in Radar1 Fear/Greed. Also neither the Triple Trender nor the Radar3 Trend Strength Index have confirmed a bearish trend.  )

    NASDAQ  Futures

    (This market did move downward but it has not yet broken down. It is still trading within the narrow range by which it has been bound since the new year. However, Radar 1 is showing that the sellers are stronger than buyers at this point. A close below the long-term Triple Trender will cause me to be significantly more bearish on the American markets in general.  )

    Equities Setups:

    (Sell Short) ESV- Ensco plc.

    (A bearish pivot divergence with Radar1 Fear/Greed  at the recent high. Radar 3 Trend Strength and Triple Trender both confirmed bearish. A trendline pullback signal to the downside, and the wave counter suggests we have completed wave-5 and are beginning reversal wave-A. )

    (Buy) ZNGA- Zenga.

    (A bullish Pullback 23 setting up after a pullback into the recently synchronized bullish Triple Trender. The pullback was also to the breakout price which is good support.  Upside target is the gap-fill at $4.45 )

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (Gold dropped to a significant support level around $1560 this week. If it closes below $1540 the next downside target would be around $1515. More likely we will see it move sideways for a while.  )

    CRUDE OIL

    (Last week I noted the strengthening sell pressure in the Radar1 Fear/Greed and the trend strength change in Radar3 Trend Strength. This bearish orientation is now confirmed in Radar3 and the Triple Trender. Note the bearish breakdown from the up trendline this past week. Since Radar1Fear/Greed is currently making lower lows a bullish 'Pullback Divergence' could be developing in the next few weeks. Look for this current down move to find support around $91.25. A close below the Bull Flag low of $92.52 will negate the current Bull Flag and the green target dots will stop plotting )

    Forex:

    (Sell Short)-USDCHF

    ( Bearish Trend Exhaustion1 at the down trendline. Radar1 Fear/Greed did not give us a bullish reversal divergence at the last low, so I expect another thrust down. Beware: Radar3 Trend Stength is bullish! )

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

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Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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