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Stock Trading Blog | Hawk's Scan Sentry Report | Jan Arps Trading

  • How I Trade Equities

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 23

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 23.

    I was talking this weekend with a couple of friends of mine from a local IBD (Investor’s Business Daily) group who follow my weekly report. Thanks guys!!! Some of them had been following some of my specific stock recommendations for months. It occurred to me that there may be some misunderstanding as to the type of stock trading for which I am offering technical analysis. Although I do have some longer term stock investments, I am a very short term stock trader. Not quite a day trader, but more aptly a ‘litttle-swing’ trader. It is for this kind of trade that I am posting my weekly technical analysis. I am generally in and out of my trade in 2 to 8 days.

    First I look at how much I am willing to risk. Ordinarily I like to use a short-term Arps Trender for my stop loss, but if I am entering on the wrong side of the Arps Trender  I will calculate a volatility factor (ATR/Avg price) and risk less than 1.5 of that volatility unit. My goal is to make 4% or better on my 'little-swing' trade.  Be wary though, as this will sometimes create some relatively skewed risk/reward ratios. That’s why I like to be prepared with both long and short possibilities so that,  in general, I can take my positions in the direction of the broader market movement. In this way I endeavor to keep as much wind at my back as possible.  On occasion I will hold onto a stock longer if I believe that I have made a good entry on a trend, but usually I will get out as soon as I get a significant signal from the Arps Price Leader (Radar2) on my daily chart.

    Of course, every trader must operate within a method that suits their own personality as well as their account size. And every trader must take complete responsibility for the outcome of each trade. I am not recommending my system to anybody; I am simply describing a process which works for me. I have the advantage of having access to some of the best technical analysis tools available, and I am trying to share that edge with you. I hope that this helps clarify the type of trading I am describing in these posts, and that perhaps it may give you some ideas for your own trading process.

    And now here are a few stocks identified by the “Scan Sentry Toolkit” that I am looking at this week and some of the analysis behind my decisions.



    (After pulling back to support we have a breakout of the flag pattern with all three Radar tools pointing up. Nice “Trend” divergence in the Radar2 Price Leader as well. This is precisely the pattern I predicted in a post several weeks ago  )


    (Another flag pattern breakout on very high volume with all three Radar tools and the Triple Trender looking strong with potential to get stronger ).


    (Note the recent pullback into the Triple Trender closing the unfilled gap, and the Radar2 Price Leader accelerating while the upward pointing blue histogram bars of the Radar3 Trend Strength Index identify an up-trend.)



    (I like the Overbought signal when Radar 3 Trend Strength Index is bearish. And I like the “Bearish Trend Divergence” in the Price Leader as well as in the Fear/Greed indicator. Beware, the Triple Trender is bullish!).


    (Note the Pullback 23 and the overbought signal in the downtrend. Also the bear flag target is still unattained).


    (Note Pullback23 and Overbought signal and synchronization of the bearish Triple Trender. Bear flag formation forming. Beware if the Radar2 Price Leader gets above its centerline).

    May the trend be with you,


    (Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.)
  • For Both Speculators and Spectators

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 17

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 17.

    Well, it is obvious to most technical analysts that the S&P index is once again resting at the top end of the trading range of the last 2 months, and folks want to know if it will break through this resistance, or once again be turned back by the persistent growling of the economic pessimists. For what it’s worth here’s my two cents.

    The NQ has already broken above its two month highs and has retraced 80% of its losses since the Summer highs of July . This index is a leader I expect the rest of the American markets to follow. Also, I expect the bulls to run the buy stops which are certainly placed above the S&P index highs around 1225. This should add more fuel to our current rally inspiring even more bulls to jump in on the breakout momentum. At that point the ‘Big Money’ may cash in a little bit by selling into the rally and potentially forcing the market into retesting our current levels which will by then be a support level. This would create another buying opportunity which could push the S&P index up to the next resistance levels around 1258 and 1300. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NQ retest 2420 in the next couple of weeks.

    Of course this is all speculation… That’s why they call us speculators. No one knows what the market will do. But as long as my trading account can handle it, I’d rather be a speculator than a spectator!  As always, I’ll be looking for both long and short opportunities so that I can be ready to take advantage of what the markets actually do. Below I offer for your own perusal some of those stocks that I am looking at this week… and some graphic examples of the technical indicators I use to make my trading decisions.

    Here are a few stocks that I am looking at...



    (Note the breakout from consolidation and the early trend detection from the Triple Trender and the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator.  Also note the increased buying indicated by the Radar1 Fear/Greed histogram and accelerating price movement in the Radar2 Price Leader.)


    (This looks like a nice pull-back in our uptrend, identified by our Pullback 23 indicator. Also note the accelerating Radar2 Price Leader and strengthening Radar1Fear/Greed).


    (Note the breakout of the flag pattern with the target at a previous high. Also note Triple Trender alignment and accelerating Radar2 Price Leader and increasing bullishness in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).



    (Note the Type 2 “Trend Divergence” in the Radar2 Price Leader and the Pullback 23 signal coincident with an overbought signal in our TT6 Trend Exhaustion 1 indicator).


    (Note the coincident Pullback 23 with the overbought indication from our latest TT6 Trend Exhaustion 1 indicator  near resistace. Also note a Type 2 “Trend Divergence” in the Radar2 Price Leader).


    (Note pullback to the short-term line of the Triple Trender coinciding with a Pullback 23 signal within a bearish  flag pattern).

    May the trend be with you,



  • Occupy a Stock Position on Wall Street

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 9

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 10.

    Well the past week has been a wild ride, giving the quick and responsive trader plenty of opportunities to make (or lose) money going both ways. SGEN was my pick of the week gaining 17%, and I am still holding onto it for more. We were in the money on our bearish picks on Monday, but were stopped out at break-even on that incredible rally on Tuesday afternoon.

    I heard many pundits profess all kinds of reasons for the powerful upthrust of last Tuesday afternoon, citing news articles from the Financial Times or comments made or not made by Chairman Bernanke or European finance ministers. I say BUNK! To me the reason for that rally was and is clear…. there were a lot more buyers than there were sellers. Granted, many of those buyers may have been covering short positions. Others may have seen the market adequately oversold and bought into that weakness as I predicted last week. The bottom line is that resistance held at 1070 and now that is clearly our line in the sand.

    So what do we have for this week? I don’t see this rally extending past 1215 in the S&P, with significant resistance at 1195. As usual I am looking at opportunities in both directions in order to best take advantage of what the market shows me.

    Here are a few stocks that I am looking at.



    Note price broke resistance 6 bars ago, then pulled back to support, now is making new highs. Bullish Radar 1 Fear/Greed and Radar 3 Trend Strength Index.


    Note new price highs (since the August collapse), Radar1 Fear/Greed turning bullish, Radar2 Price Leader accelerating, and Radar3 Trend Strength Index turning bullish. May retest $77.50 before moving higher.


    Note Triple Trender synchronized all three trenders. Look for pullback close to short term Trender for entry. Also note Radar1 Fear/Greed turning bullish, Radar 2 Price Leader accelerating, and Radar3 Trend Strength Index turning bullish. Radar 1 Fear/Greed demonstrating accumulation pattern. Beware of unfilled gap...



    Note unfinished Bear flag pattern and Pullback 23 setting up at resistance.


    Note Pullback 23 at resistance.


    Note Pullback 23 and unfullfilled Bear Flag pattern. Alao Radar 1 Fear/Greed still very bearish.

    Good trading, and celebrate living,


  • Deja vu?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 2

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 2.

    The S&P index closed near the low end of September's trading range which we were also testing this time last week.  In fact Friday’s close is only 2 points off of the close from the previous week. In the long run it’s almost as if this past week didn’t even happen. There are, however,  a few subtle differences in the technical analysis between this week and last… The Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator today is showing less selling pressure than it did last week. In fact, using a sensitivity setting of 6,  it is pretty neutral at this time. Also the fast line of the Radar2 Price Leader (3,5) has crossed the slow line. It is not only higher than it was when price was at this level a week ago, but this week it crossed just above it’s centerline out of a state of deceleration. These are some of the reasons I am looking for bullish signals this evening. Mind you, there is clearly no indication of bullish control of the markets; nonetheless, it appears to me as price rests near key support, that the bears have lost a bit of their momentum and as a consequence there may some buying opportunities.

    Although at this time I have a slight bias to the upside, I am also looking for some good shorting possibilities in order to hedge my prospects.

    Here are a few stocks that I am looking at.



    Note that we have just pulled back to the breakout price in a Bull flag. Which is also the short-term Trender  on a recent bullish Triple Trender signal. Also note rising fast-line on Radar2.


    Note the Pullback 23, another pullback in a bullish flag breakout, and a trend divergenge in the Radar2 Price Leader.


    Note pullback 23 is setting up and a Type II Trend divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed  and Radar2 Price Acceleration oscillators.



    Note the pullback to the short-term Trender on the previous bar to the recently aligned Triple Trender, and the decelerating cross of the Radar2 Price Leader.


    Note decelerating Radar2 Price Leader, and recent Trender Pullbacks.


    Note increasing bearish pressure in Radar1 Fear/Greed and recent Trender Pullback to aligned Triple Trender.

    May the trend be with you,


  • Economics and Technical Analysis

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report September 26

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning September 26.

    This weekend the World Bank, IMF,  and global financiers met in Washington D.C. to fret over the current state of affairs of the global economic landscape. It appears that the ‘too big to fail’ banks (which are bigger now than they were in 2008) are once again looking at swallowing the bitter pill of unrepayed loans… this time in Europe. I will spare you my macro-economic rant about how the current recession/depression which is once again being reflected in the global credit markets is the logical result of the thirty year experiment with ‘Supply-Side’ (or Voodoo) economics.  Instead, let’s be practical and take a look at what effect this and the other news will have on our already volatile American markets this week?

    My guess is very little. The World Bank’s worries about the fate of the Euro, and the people whose lives are dependant on its value, are already represented by the 16% evaporation of value in the American and European markets since early July.  Usually, by the time ‘news’ hits the newswires most of that information seems to be already baked into the prices of the various markets. Did anyone notice what happened when Steve Jobs announced his resignation as CEO at AAPL… the stock went up for a week!  I am skeptical about trading the news… As we all know, the only reason prices go up or down is because there are more buyers or sellers at any given time.  The reasons persons and corporations have for buying and selling are generally rooted in either fear of losing money or perceived opportunities to make more money.

    So let’s look at some opportunities to make some more money.

    Due to the high volatility within the range-bound nature of the American markets these days, for 'long' trades I am looking to trade corrections in extremely oversold markets using the Trend Exhaustion1 and 2 tools. These trades can be perceived as ‘counter-trend’ trades, so be careful. Remember, these are short term ideas. I’m hoping to gain several ATRs while risking only one. These are not investments or even ‘swing’ trades; but opportunities which may be good for a couple of days at least.  If you don’t like betting against the trend, some of these ideas may not be for you. For 'short' trades I am turning to one of our favorite set-ups... the Pullback 23.

    Let’s take a look…..



    EE: note Radar 2 Price Leader (TE1) crossing out of over-sold zone with a pivot divergence, and the bullish engulfing bar at support.

    TMX: note the pivot divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed and Radar2 Price Leader against the mid-June lows and the Trend Exhaustion 2 signal as the Radar2 Price Leader prepares to cross it's slow line.

    PGN: This looks like a potential pullback to retest its breakout level.


    FDS: note pivot divergence in Radar2 Price Leader coinciding with Pullback 23. Be careful, this is against  the Triple Trender!

    LBTYA: note Pullback 23 in same direction as Triple Trender.

    K: Another Pullback 23 in line with the Triple Trender. Beware of Pivot divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed

  • Nothing Fancy

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report September 19

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning September 19.

    Last week’s new Radar1 MACD tool showed a lot of promise. By the end of the first day of the week, 5 of the7 stocks we were looking at showed a profit, and by the end of the week  MRVL, MU, and SNDK were all showing profits between 9-10%.

    This week I used the TTB Pullback 23 tool as the primary criteria in my weekly scan.  The settings were Treble-3, Bass-9, Tempo-21, Chromatic-2 looking at daily data. Here are a couple of the stocks it showed as potential trading opportunities….





    May the trend be with you,


  • A Primer on the Fear/Greed Indicator

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report September 12

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning September 12.

    Today I want to talk about the Radar1 Fear Greed indicator and how we use it to find potential trading signals. This is one of our most popular tools because of it's efficacy in demonstrating the strength of the buyers and sellers. One of the most common signals we like to look for is divergences of peaks and valleys between the indicator and the price. Another signal we look for is when the Fear/Greed indicator crosses above or below its zero line. We can also set the Radar1 alert threshold to the value of the indicator’s previous peak or valley and look for a cross of that threshold. Sometimes we also draw trendlines on the indicator's peaks and valleys and look for signals when the Radar1 value crosses that trendline. In trending markets we like to look for the Fear/Greed histogram bars to get longer again after they shorten up in a pullback.

    But right now the American stocks are not in a trending market. In general, the stock index futures contracts appear to be in a state of consolidation. This weekend the S&P index is pretty close to the middle of its current trading range (which by my reckoning spans approximately 1105-1220). So, this week I’m interested in finding a way to use the Fear/Greed indicator to identify stocks which are experiencing increased buying or selling pressure. The Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator is the ideal tool for this because it gives us insight into whether the bears or the bulls are strengthening their grip on the markets in question. But how do we identify this condition?  This week in order to identify the relative strength of the Radar 1 Fear Greed indicator,  I created for myself a modified tool which calculates a moving average of the Fear/Greed indication, and then identifies a signal when the strengthening or weakening Radar1 value crosses it’s own moving average.  For the time being I’m calling this custom tool my Radar 1 MACD indicator.

    If my Radar1 MACD does as well as last weeks custom Radar 2 “auto OB-OS” tool I’ll be encouraged. By the end of last week, the new tool I created showed profitable indications on five of the seven stocks  identified in last weeks report; with YONG gaining 7.5 % on a long position and ATK showing better than a 4% profit with a short signal.

    But remember, this is an untested tool, so I would recommend extreme caution as you are making your trading decisions. I am bringing this new tool to your attention  as an example of one of the myriad ways you can use the versatile Arps indicators to help identify potential trading set ups.

    Let’s see how she does…


    MRVL              KT

    MU                   TTM

    SNDK               BCSI


    May the trend be with you,




  • Dynamic Over-bought and Over-sold Zones

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report September 6

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning September 6.

    Today I want to talk about the Trend Exhaustion1 (R2) indicator. As many of you may know, the Trend Exhaustion1 tool is based on the Radar2 Price Acceleration oscillator, also known as the Arps Price Leader. If you have experimented with the TE1 tool at all, you know that you can use it in two different ways. It can either mark an exit from an overbought or oversold zone, or it can mark a cross of the fast and slow lines. Well, there are advantages and disadvantages to both of these approaches. If you use the overbought/oversold cross you will get fewer signals but, in order to set the OB-OS zones, you must know what the extreme ranges of this unbounded oscillator are for whatever market you are looking at.  If you use the fast/slow cross you will get a very timely signal; but, because the Radar2 Price Leader is so sensitive,  you have to filter out a lot  of the crossing signals to find the trend exhaustion indication which you want. Well, one solution is to scan your list of stocks using the TE1 tool applied twice, and in that way you can find symbols which fulfill both criteria at once. This should filter out a lot of the unwanted signals and just show you the Radar2 crosses around the overbought and oversold zones (which are the ones you typically want). Well, there is still one problem…. because the  Radar 2 Price Leader is an unbounded oscillator, the overbought and oversold zones vary from instrument to instrument.  If you want to use a scanner to monitor for OB-OS crosses you would have to readjust the OB-OS zones for every symbol. In order to overcome this obstacle, tonight I made myself  a custom TE1 scanning indicator which looks at every major peak and valley in the Radar2 oscillator and averages the highest and lowest 10 in order to set a dynamic overbought and oversold zone for any market.  These 'dynamic' zones will allow the indicator to change and adapt to the market as the market itself influences this unbounded indicator.  When I run this modified TE1 indicator through a spreadsheet application or a scanner, I am able to let every symbol set its own overbought or oversold zone. Consequently I can get much more timely and significant signals. Here is an image of the custom tool applied to a spreadsheet and a chart.

    Using daily charts for my stock scans,  the only results I get with this tool right now are bearish. Consequently I’ll use other indications to try and find any potential buying opportunities this week.

    To those of you who attended last Thursday’s webinar which presented  some of our best selling tools on the Ninja Trader platform, once again thank you. We will try and post a video of that presentation on our website soon. Of course, you can at any time get some good instruction on how to use some of  Jan Arps’ tools from our YouTube videos which can be accessed from the ‘videos’ page of our website.

    So, without further ado, here are the stocks that our indicators are recognizing as potential trading opportunities this week. In these volatile times, stock trading becomes trickier and riskier. Please, never risk more than you can afford to lose.

    And now for this weeks stock recommendations….


    IEF                  SYKE

    YONG             SFSF

    UL                   ATK


    May the trend be with you,




  • How to Manage Volatility

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report August 29

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning August29.

    Today I want to talk about the Triple Trender. As most of you may know, the Triple Trender is based on the Arps Trender run at three different sensitivity settings.  It has proven itself to provide good early trend identification signals when all three ‘Trenders’ come into alignment, meaning when they are all three on the same side of the price bars. The Trender is a very sensitive tool, and there is an aspect of it which adapts to volatility within its calculations. Therefore, in times like these where, for example, the Average True Range of the S&P e-mini contract has quickly gone from around 20 up to 45, it may become necessary to adjust the sensitivity settings of your Triple Trender until the markets settle down a little bit.  I have included a few snapshots of the ES contract with the Triple Trender applied at it’s default setting of 2,5,7 and then one again at 1.5, 3.5, 5.5.

    Notice how when the volatility was much lower, the standard settings provided good signals indicating when the market was trending and when it became choppy and range-bound. Now that the volatility is double what it was then, it may be time to consider more sensitive settings until the volatility settles down a bit.

    You may wonder how I came up these revised sensitivity settings. The last time we saw the S&P e-mini contract approach 40 from a lower range on the ATR indicator was in Februrary of 2008.  Notice how the more sensitive Triple Trender settings help us to navigate the trend better until the ATR indicator recedes back to around 20.

    As we know in hindsight, the volatility increased as the year progressed and the market went over a cliff. Our future is yet unknown. As for me, when volatility doubles its average range, I use more sensitive Triple Trender settings.

    We’re happy to announce that we’ve recently translated many of our most popular tools (including the Triple Trender) into Ninja Script for the Ninja Trader clientele, and I will be providing an introduction to some of those tools at a Ninja sponsored webinar this Thursday. Unfortunately, I won’t have time on Thursday to go into minute detail on all the ways you can use these sophisticated tools, but it should be a good introduction to anyone just becoming familiar with the Arps tools.  You can also get some good instruction at any time on how to use some of these tools on the videos page of our website.

    So, without further ado, here are the stocks that our indicators are recognizing as potential trading opportunities this week. Remember, in these volatile times, stock trading becomes trickier and riskier. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

    And now for this weeks stock recommendations….


    SGEN               KT

    CBOE                DEI


    May the trend be with you,




  • Daughters Dancing and Short Selling

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report.  This is Sunday night with stock recommendations  for the week of August 22. But first, here’s a little food for thought as a preface to this week’s stock picking ideas.

    Today I went to a funeral for one friend and a wedding for another. I watched families I know and strangers I don’t laughing, crying and dancing together. Attending the wedding was a dear friend of mine who has an inoperable tumor growing on his brain; and I watched him dance with his daughters. The daughters don’t really care if he’s on the correct side of the market… they’re simply glad to have the opportunity to dance with their father and celebrate life with him.

    Let’s keep these markets in perspective. We all know that trading in these markets can be nerve-wracking, exciting, profitable and dangerous... very time consuming and even addictive. The equities markets look very bearish to me at the moment, right now perhaps the safest long term investment you can make is to dance with your family.

    As many of you who have been following this blog for some time may know, I like to scan for (and suggest) both long and short positions in order to be ready for market moves in either direction. This week (as always) I have been scanning the markets for tradable set-ups using the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit and, honestly, the only trades that are coming up are short trades. There are some inverse ETF’s and some bond fund ETF’s that are presenting themselves as potential  buys; but neither of those instruments really provide a good ‘hedge’ in case we get a bounce in the market this week. Honestly,  even though this may be a good buying opportunity, right now I don’t see any leaders to the upside that I would be willing to trade yet.

    Therefor here are some stocks to sell short. I have come by them by performing scans configured with the Arps TTB Pullback23 indicator, the Arps Triple Trender,  and other filters. So, through the laborious efforts of technical analysis made so much easier by the Arps Scan Sentry tools, I have come up with these ideas to look at for 'short' entry possibilities for short term swing trade positions.

    All of these symbols showed recent signals in the Radar2 Price Acceleration Oscillator.

    May the trend be with you,


    Here are the picks…








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Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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