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Monthly Archives: March 2013

  • Watch This!

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 25, 2013

    This week's report is presented as a video presentation. Please click on the link below to watch it; and be sure to leave me some feedback here on the blog  page or on the video page letting me know if you like this new format.

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the video examples that follow I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Hawk's Scan Sentry Report March 25

    http://youtu.be/EJTuPXXm4FI

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Upside or Down?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 18, 2013

    As far as the raging American stock indexes are concerned, the daily charts show nothing but a strong bullish trend. Now, we all know that this won’t last forever, and that there will be a correction, and one day a reversal; but when? Personally, I’m looking for a correction early this week, and I will explain why. Although the daily chart is extremely bullish, if we drill down to a 50,000 share chart of the S&P eMini we start to see some early bearish signals.  For instance there is a Trend Exhaustion 3 signal preceding the recent high, and a bearish reversal signal where the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator rolled over from bullish to bearish without ever turning blue while it was on the bullish side of zero.  I also see bearish pivot divergences in Radar1 Fear Greed. Now, I know that we commonly see divergences all the way up a strongly trending market like this one, but the other indications I mentioned will have me considering some short term  (day-trading) bearish setups early this week. However, if you only trade in the direction of the longer term trend, then clearly you will be looking for bullish opportunities.

    S&P  Futures (Daily)

    (All three Trenders are bullish as is Radar3 Trend Strength and Radar1 Fear/Greed. However, decelerating Radar2 Price Leader indicates we may see a correction down to one of the trendlines.)

    S&P  Futures (50,000 share chart)

    (Here we start to see some weakness in the uptrend. Note the Bearish divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed, and the bearish pattern in Radar3 Trend Strength. Also note the Trend Exhaustion 3 signal preceding the recent high. A breakdown below resistance at $1551 will cause the Triple Trender to confirm bearishness on this perspective.)

    Let’s take a look at some other charts…

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    Other Charts and Analysis

    Equities Setups:

    (Sell Short) LCRX- Lam research.

    (Bearish Pivot Divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed at the peak, breakdown from the up-trendline. All three Trenders bearish, Radar3 just turned bearish and Radar1 Fear Greed is bearish . )

    (Buy) VTR- Ventas Inc.

    (A Pullback 23 signal and a Trend Exhaustion 1 signal combining in a bullish Pullback divergence with Radar2 Price Leader… this is also known as Trend Exhaustion 123. )

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (This market is more bearish than bullish as indicated by the Triple Trender, Radar3 Trend Strength and the juxtaposition of price to the up and down trendlines. I’m seeing a bearish Pullback 23 setting up, but I would not be surprised to see it grind up to the down trendline or one of the resistance lines before heading back down to support at $1560.  )

    CRUDE OIL

    (This is a market with bullish potential as demonstrated by the bullish pullback divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed. However, the Long-term Trender and Radar3 Trend Strength and Radar2 are all showing bearish indications so I am looking for this to move to the downside this week.)

    Forex:

    (Sell)-EURCHF

    ( After the upward pink Radar3 Trend Strength rolled over to confirm bearishness we get a bearish Pullback 23, also have bearish Radar1 Fear/Greed. Downside target is 1.217)

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Who’s The Boss Around Here?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 4, 2013

    What good is technical analysis? Well, last week’s equities picks both went in the right direction (according to my analysis), and the crude oil futures contract dropped precipitously as predicted. Unfortunately last week's published currency analysis went against me… while gold obediently went sideways. Wait a minute… did I say “obediently”?

    Actually, the markets don’t do what I tell them to do. Darn It! That is why markets can be so frustrating. Many of us are used to controlling our environment by exerting our will upon it… we use the powers of our mind, physique, and personality to change things around us... some do it aggressively and some more subtly, but that is how we are used to getting things done. However, none of us are strong enough to exert our will upon any of these global markets. The only part of the trading environment we can control is ourselves. At best we can give ourselves knowledge, experience and the discipline to test and follow a plan.

    A trading plan may include specific trade set-ups triggered by technical analysis indicator signals. However, indicators don’t control the markets either. In fact, regardless of all the hype out there, there is no indicator that can direct the future turns of the market. Technical analysis indicators can only read and report historical and current market conditions. Some can even make educated guesses about higher probability trading opportunities. But the market doesn’t have to do what the indicator suggests that it’s likely to do. In fact, there are robots and other traders out there programmed to trade against some of the more common indicator signals. You see, the indicators that you use are the windows that you look through to see the mass psychology of the markets which you are trading.  The more common ones will show you what in earlier generations was known as ‘pop-psychology’. At first blush the analysis sounds and looks good, and is occasionally effective; but it’s also predictable to the sharks and vultures out there trying to nab your trading capital. That is why it is so important to have more sophisticated technical analysis indicators to help with your trading decisions.  This is one of the reasons why we have created our own indicators. Another reason is that we can create tools that give us exactly the information that WE want to use in our trading. You will see some of those tools on the charts below.

    And now for some proprietary technical analysis….

    For those of you not familiar with “Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report”, on the examples below I explain my analysis for some of the most commonly traded symbols using some of the most highly regarded technical indicators available. These tools are used by both institutional and private traders across the globe and are built into many of today’s most popular trading platforms. However, if you are not familiar with these indicators please follow this link to a legend describing these tools.

    The Charts and Analysis

    Index Futures:

    S&P  Futures

    (This is an undecided market. It dropped following our bearish signals two weeks ago, but the Radar3 Trend Strength Index is still strongly bullish, even though the Triple Trender is now synchronized bearish. Radar2 Price Leader is accelerating after a bullish pullback divergence. Radar1 Fear/Greed gives the short term advantage to the buyers. The Triple Trender and Trend Exhaustion 3 give it to the sellers.)

    Russell  Futures

    (Here we see a bullish Trend Exhaustion 1 accompanying a Pullback 23 creating a bullish TE-123. The Triple Trender is bearish while the Radar3 Trend Strength is still bullish.  Radar1 Fear/Greed still rising means that this market could  move up to start this week.)

    Equities Setups:

    (Sell Short) NEM- Newmont Mining.

    (This stock has proven that it can go down even if the rest of the market is going up. Here we see a break down from a Bear Flag with a downside target of $36.38 . )

    (Buy) GS- Goldman Sachs Inc.

    (A Pullback 23 signal and a Trend Exhaustion 1 signal combining in a bullish Pullback divergence with Radar2 Price Leader. )

    Commodities:

    GOLD

    (This is a bearish market, with support around $1560. This week I would look to fade the high end of the  trading range around $1620.  )

    CRUDE OIL

    (This very bearish market closed the week at significant support. Radar1 Fear/Greed, Radar3 Trend Strength, and the Triple Trender all are confirmed bearish. Support could hold, but the next downside target is $87.51  )

    Forex:

    (Buy)-CADCHF

    ( Note the bullish pivot divergence with Radar1 Fear/Greed at a key support level. Also note the breakout from the down trendline. )

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    www.janarps.com

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

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Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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