Sign up for tips & tools and receive a free scanning tool!
 

The right tool for the job. If we don't have it, we can make it!

Monthly Archives: March 2012

  • Time to be Careful

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 26

    Well, clearly the American stock indexes are drawing back and everyone wants to know if this is the end of the rally, or is this a buying opportunity? I look at hundreds of charts every weekend and I must say that I am seeing a lot of bearish pivot divergences in the recent highs. Of course, we all know that strongly trending markets are known for giving several false divergence signals before they finally run out of steam. That is what I think we are witnessing here. In the long run (6 months - 1 yr) I am still bullish; I believe that this rally still has more fuel in the form of sidelined money that will eventually push some stocks higher. For the short term, however, I’m tightening my stops and I am being a bit more cautious about the set-ups I’m willing to trade. I am,nonetheless, still looking for good pullback opportunities as well as valid breakouts from congestion.

    Here are a few items from this week’s watch list and a little explanation of the technical analysis indicated on the charts. If you want further explanation of any of the indicators on the charts below you can find a ‘legend’ at this link.

    _____Longs_____

    ESL

    (Here we see a breakout of the down trendline and a continuation of the Bull Flag progression after a nice pullback into the Triple Trender.)

    UTIW

    (A breakout from the down trendline after a pullback into the Triple Trender. Also note the strengthening Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator. )

    _____Shorts_____

    TOL

    (Note the diminishing bullishness in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator creating a bearish pivot divergence. I would not short this stock, however, until all three Trenders are bearish and Radar3 Trend Strength crosses below zero. )

    AEC

    (I like the recent Overbought TE-1 signal and the selling pressure indicated by the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator.)

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • College Hoops and the Stock Market

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 26

    Ok…I admit that I am a college hoops fan and have been enjoying following some of the games of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (‘March Madness’) this week. The obvious metaphor here is that the bracket picks that look the strongest according to the analysts’ rankings will not always be the best or correct choices. It’s the same with choosing stocks regardless of whether you are using technical analysis or fundamental analysis for your choices. The rankings are often irrelevant to the performance. When we trade the markets, the rise or fall in price is beyond our control… only our response to what happens is within our power.  As I watch some of the basketball games, it is interesting to observe the mental and emotional fortitude of the individual players and teams. Sometimes it is easy to see who will succeed and who will not in that high pressure environment by observing their emotional response to success or adversity. Here we have another analogy with trading… we must develop mental and emotional discipline as well as our intellectual and financial fortitude in order to succeed. Having a good coach makes a big difference.

    As a part of our 20th Anniversary celebration, Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is offering a free webinar with esteemed trading coach Adrienne Tograhie on Tuesday March 20th at 4:30 PM (EDT). She will discuss some of the psychological challenges of trading and how to successfully address them.   Pre-registration is mandatory for this event, so please take advantage of this free opportunity and use the following URL link to register for her webinar:
    http://tradingontarget.omnovia.com/registration/pid=75881331324225

    What have you got to lose?

    And now for this weeks charts... In the selections below you will find a few examples from my watch-list for this week. These include some early trend identification trades, pullbacks, and trend exhaustion trades. If you want further explanation of any of the indicators on the charts below you can find a ‘legend’ at this link.

    _____Longs_____

    CBSH

    (I like the bullish accumulation in Radar1 Fear/Greed, the recent bullish signals in the Triple Trender and Radar3 Trend Strength as we approach the beginning of a Wave-5 identified by the wave pattern indicator. I will wait to see a breakout of resistance on heavy volume to confirm entry).

    OSG

    (I like the Pivot-Buy signal followed by the bullish trendline breakout, Triple Trender synchronization and now Radar3 is starting indicate bullish trend strength).

    BXS

    (This one may pull back to $12.50 support. I like the bullish breakout after a nice consolidation marked by a lot of buying pressure indicated by Radar1 Fear/Greed).

    _____Shorts_____

    OKE

    (Here we see a Pivot-Sell Divergence signal coinciding with a couple of Trender Pullback signals after the Triple Trender turned bearish. Radar 1 Fear/Greed indicates a lack of buyers at the top of the rally in late January and a recent consolidation marked by sell strength. )

    ARCC

    (Note the Pivot-Sell divergence signal 11 bars ago. Radar3 and the Triple Trender are both bearish now).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Check Out These Charts!

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 12

    In last week’s blog I discussed looking for pullback opportunities while the market is trending. And this past week was a good week for picking up a few more shares on the retracement… and for holding on to the shares I’ve already got.  As always, my stock scans are oriented toward early trend identification (which is hard to find these days), and pullbacks within the trend. This week I am turning to one of our new tools, our market Wave Analysis indicator to help identify some of my trading opportunities. I am also looking for signs of trend exhaustion, distribution, and decline for my potential short-term short positions. The Arps Scan Sentry tools which accompany most of my indicators make it easy to scan a universe of symbols for the trading set-ups which these indicators identify.

    Below you will find a few examples from my watchlist for this week. If you want an explanation of any of the indicators on these charts you can find a ‘legend’ at this link (I know that the link did not work last week, and I apologize… but I think that we fixed it).

    _____Longs_____

    LPS

    (Here is a nice breakout of the downtrend line and of the Flag pattern. The W3 and W4 signals indicate which wave patterns have been completed. This looks like the beginning of Wave-5).

    IRDM

    (Here’s another trendline breakout preceded by an oversold pullback which was  identified by Trend Exhaustion 1. The Triple Trender has just synchronized bullish and all three Radar tools are now bullish. Note the beginning of the Wave-5 in the Wave pattern analysis).

    QEP

    (A Pullback 23 signal after the first pullback into the bullish Triple Trender. I like to find Triple Trender synchronicity during the Wave 2 phase of the Wave analysis for early trend identification ).

    _____Shorts_____

    CHT

    (A pullback into the Triple Trender accompanied by an overbought Trend Exhaustion1 signal as well as a Pullback 23 signal. Note the gradually increasing bearishness of the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).

    CAVM

    (Here’s an example of the Triple Trender turning bearish about the same time that the Radar3 Trend Strength does. This follows a retracement to the pullback signal on the downtrend line. Notice the recent weakness of the buyers and the increasing selling pressure identified by the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Ask the Rodeo Rider

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report March 4

    A lot of market bystanders these days want to know “How do you jump onto a raging bull?". Many watched the January/February rally from the sidelines, some doubting it, and others waiting for a pullback to jump into.  Some news junkies may have even tried to short the early 2012 rally.  Well, if you ask a rodeo cowboy how to get on a raging bull he’ll tell you to get on it before it starts raging... and then hang on like hell! In one way the rodeo bull is a really good analogy… that “ lil’ doggie” is going to buck and bounce and do everything he can to throw you off the ride…Just like the markets we trade. Those rodeo pros have a visceral understanding of volatility!

    A month or so ago I expressed my bullish sentiment, and started accumulating positions to hold onto for swing trades…. Even so, I was further behind the trend than I like to be.  I am still bullish for the long run, but given that the market has been trending for several months now, I’m now scanning for pullbacks in the trend for my trading opportunities. I have several types of pullbacks I look for which will be demonstrated in the charts below. One of my favorites is the combination of an oversold signal in Trend Exhaustion1 (R2) with a Pullback 23 signal. Another good low risk set up is to look for a Trender Pullback after the Triple Trender has synchronized; or, if you want confirmation, wait for the short-term Trender of the Triple Trender to reconcile the Triple Trender synchronicity. A Flag pattern is another good pullback in the trend pattern. I also like to scan for pullbacks to a trendline with my Trendline Signals indicator. Fortunately I have scanning tools which match the charting tools to help me find some of these set-ups.

    Let’s take a look at a few of the stocks from my watch list this week and I’ll show you what I’m talking about. If you have any questions about any of the indicators on the charts below, you can find an indicator legend at  http://www.janarps.com/main/images/upload/BlogLegend.pdf

    _____Longs_____

    MR

    (Here we see a breakout above resistance represented by the downtrend line following  the second pullback after the Triple Trender synchronized bullish... and a breakout of a Flag pattern! ).

    EQY

    (Here we see a confluence of a Trender Pullback into the long-term Trender, a Pullback 23, and an Oversold Trend Exhaustion1 (R2). The oversold Radar2 valley creates a “Pullback Divergence” also known as a “ Trend Divergence”).

    _____Shorts_____

    QCOR

    (Note the Pullback 23 and the simultaenous overbought Trend Exhaustion1 signals after a pullback into a recently short Triple Trender. Also notice the ‘Trend’ divergence in Radar 2 Price Leader. I also call this type of divergence a ‘Pullback Divergence’).

    OSK

    (Here we have a breakdown from the uptrend line, all three Radar tools have just gone bearish, and the Triple Trender just turned bearish).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

4 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

make up wisuda make up jogja prewedding jogja prewedding yogyakarta berita indonesia