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Monthly Archives: December 2011

  • Trading Thoughts for the Solstice

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning December 19.

    The winter darkness is approaching its deepest and longest phase of the year; and all of the cultural celebrations which are (coincidentally?) celebrated this season are drawing attention and volume out of the American markets which I look at here in this blog every week.  A consequence of this is that the markets may be moved with a bit less volume and enthusiasm than at other times of the year.  Personally, I do not expect to be trading (much) this week.. but I'll still offer a few stocks to look at which the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit has identified as potentially tradeable.

    Before listing those equities however, I want to take this opportunity to thank you for the time you take to read these posts, and for your interest in the suite of Arps of tools. I hope that the New Year will enable your heart to be filled with the precious things in your life; and that your trading account can also be fulfilled.

    Here are a few ideas to look at for short term trading opportunities.

    _____Longs_____

    BBCN

    (Pullback into the Triple Trender within a flag breakout pattern, and Radar2 Price Leader preparing to give a buy signal ).


    FTI

    (A pullback into resistance after a flag pattern breakout. This one created a ‘Bullish Trend Divergence” ).


    _____Short_____

    FDS

    (Bearish Triple Trender alignment with recent cross into bearish Radar3 Trend Strength indication. Potential Bear Flag breakout ).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • 6 Stocks I'm watching Now

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report December 12

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report, where equities trading ideas are provided by the powerful scanning tools of the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit. This is Sunday night with equities analysis for the week beginning December 12.

    The selections from last week did very well with each of the four I discussed (both long and short) ending the week in the plus column.

    This week, as we look at the American stock market in general,  the index futures contracts will expire; and, as we begin the week, all 4 major US indexes are up against near-term resistance. We are getting mixed signals from our Radar tools depending on which index we are analyzing. Looking at daily charts of the 4 major US equity indexes we see diminishing acceleration in the Radar 2  Price Leader on all of them, weak signals in both directions from the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator,  while the Radar 3 Trend Strength is still bullish on all the indexes. Of the 4 indexes, the Dow seems to be the strongest while currently the NASDAQ is the weakest. As we look at the futures contracts themselves we see that, in each case, the current contract (December 2011) , which as noted expires this week, is trading at a premium to the index which it follows; while the forward contracts (March 2012) are unanimously trading at a discount. To me this identifies a slightly bullish sentiment for the first part of this week. In the S&P contract our current short-term trading range is between 1225 and 1265, so we’ll be watching to see if either of those levels get broken and retested. Of course we’ll be looking at both long and short opportunities in order to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves.

    Here are some of the stocks I’m looking at into the end of the year.

    _____Longs_____

    PPC

    (Recent breakout from the flag pattern with all 3 Radars and Trenders bullish. I especially like that Radar1 Fear/Greed recently made new highs).


    GIS

    (Another breakout from consolidation with confirmation from all three Radars and Trenders. Beware if Radar2 Price Leader crosses below the centerline ).


    N

    (Another nice flag breakout with no more resistance to the upside! This one may still want to pull back to support around $43.90 again before completing the measured move of the flag pattern ).


    _____Shorts_____

    DVA

    (Although this one is starting to make higher highs, I like the bearish pivot divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).


    ANN

    (I like the way that Rdar2 Price Leader is crossing under the ‘slow line’ while the recent pink cross above zero in the Radar3 Trend Strength Indicator shows that the current  bullishness in un-confirmed. I also like the Trend Exhaustion1 Overbought signal here).


    FIS

    (I like the Bearish Trend Divergence corresponding with the Trend Exhaustion 1 Overbought signal).



    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Analysis for December 5

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report December 5

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning December 5.

    So, how is the American stock market looking as we roll into December? Looking at a 100,000 share  chart (volume bars) of the S&P e-mini, my analysis indicates potential short term bearish movement in the price of the contract . This is identified by the three Arps Radar tools. The Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator showed weakening buying pressure as the recent highs around 1260 were made. This type of indication is what we call a ‘bearish pivot divergence’. Furthermore,  the Fear/Greed indicator shows that, currently, there is slightly more selling pressure than buying going on. The short term bearish tendency is also indicated by the Bearish pivot divergence in the  oscillator highs of the Radar2 Price Leader which is currently showing that price is ‘decellerating’ (below the 50 centerline). The Radar 3 Trend-Strength Index has also identified a recent trendiness to the downside. Which means that Monday I will have a slight bias to the downside for very short term positions.

    This is not a long term analysis, simply looking ahead to the next day or two..…. As always I will be ready to follow the market up or down.

    For a deeper explanation of these tools and others be sure to attend our free webinar on Wednesday morning 10:30 EST.

    Below you will find some of the stocks I am looking at this week.

    _____Longs_____

    LZB

    (This stock is clearly currently at resistance, but I like the fact that Radar1 is getting stronger instead of weaker, and that we have a Bull Flag breakout with a Pullback23 signal ).


    HSTM

    (I like the pullback into the short term line of the Triple Trender. This one has  potential up to it’s recent highs above $18, after that be careful).


    _____Shorts_____

    BSX

    (The bearish engulfing bar is a pretty clear rejection of the recent pullback to the $6.00 range).


    AGU

    (I like the pullback into the bearish Triple Trender).


    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

3 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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