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Monthly Archives: November 2011

  • A Full Monti

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report November 21

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning November 21.

    Although I do not trade the news, I was intrigued that the economic troubles in Europe claimed the 17 year political career of Sylvio Berlesconi in Italy this week. Mr. Berlesconi, who was a media mogul before becoming publicly involved in Italian politics, managed to rise to the position of Prime Minister in Italy by virtue of the fact that he owned most of the newsprint, radio, and television media in Italy and therefore controlled the nature and message of the political dialog. The reason for the end of his political tenure is that Italy became the target of national bankruptcy speculation in the maelstrom surrounding the Euro, and Mr. Berlesconi and his policies were blamed.  What I find most interesting, however, is that the new Prime Minister, Mr. Monti, has decided to ban elected politicians from his cabinet of ministers, and instead place bankers, industrialists, and businessmen who have not been in politics to these positions of political power. In essence he cut out the 'middle-men'. This may indeed prove to bring a little buoyancy to the financial markets. A similar alliance between industry and government arose in Italy in the early 1930's.  It is important to remember that governments and corporations exist for different purposes… one is meant to promote the general welfare of its represented members, while the other is meant to serve the accumulation of wealth for its owners. They should not be modeled one upon the other. We'll see how this plays out for the Italian populace as well as for the interested financial institutions... and the markets which we like to trade.

    I don’t expect to do very much trading this week as many people (including myself) prepare for the holiday season. However, here are a few equities that I will be looking at this shortened week.

    _____Longs_____

    PPL

    (This looks like a pullback to support to me. I like the strong bullish indication of the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator, and the acceleration in an uptrend identified by Radars 2 and 3):

    PLCE

    (All three Radar indicators are bullish as well as the Triple Trender. This appears to have about 3 dollars of upside potential before finding resistance ):

    REXX

    (A nice pullback to resistance near the short-term Triple Trender. Radar1 Fear/Greed and Radar3 Trend Strength Index both bullish. If the Radar2 Price Leader can cross above it’s center-line into acceleration and coincide with a Bull Flag breakout I will be interested in buying):

    _____Shorts_____

    DAN

    (The Triple Trender on the price chart and all three Radar Indicators below the price chart have just turned bearish after a 'bearish pivot divergence’):

    MAA

    (Bearish Pullback 23 within a Bear Flag pattern and all three Trenders now bearish after a  pullback ).

    PRU

    (All three Trenders are now bearish with the Radar2 Price Leader decellerating amidst more selling pressure identified by the Radar1 Fear/Greed  histogram):

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • War, the Markets, and You

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report November 14

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning November 14.

    I want to thank Jan for posting that well-written midweek post about the developing flag patterns he’s finding in the markets these days, and their coincidence with Veterans Day. Of course, many of you may remember that Veterans Day was originally commemorated by our nation as “Armistace Day”, a celebration of the cessation of hostilities after the first ‘Great War’. It was a day set aside to remember the horrors of those war years in an effort to nourish the hope that governments could find more civil ways of resolving their differences. It wasn’t until well after the end of WWII that we modified that commemoration to honor all of the veterans of all of America’s wars.

    These days the horrors of war often go unrecognized by many civilians. It is only through the experiences of our veterans and their families that the timeless agonies of war are experienced and remembered. Except for the financial expenditures (which are astronomical), civilians rarely share in the ‘cost’ of going to war anymore.  Yet, it is precisely those costs that are fueling our current national debt difficulties. The fiscal problems that the United States  is  currently experiencing are due largely to the fact that the debt for those unfunded wars is coming due at a time when the economy is still suffering the consequences of the economic collapse of 2008. I find it outrageous that, after invading Iraq and Afghanistan for 10 years on borrowed money, we are now trying to pay for it by reneging on the insurance policies that great and honest Americans have created and paid for called Medicare and Social Security.  But I digress….

    Fortunately for us, the battle between the bulls and the bears goes on; and hopefully there will never be a cease-fire.  As soldiers on this battlefield, our first job is to survive which is accomplished through prudent-and-disciplined risk management. On the battlefield of the financial markets, upon which we trade, there will always be pecuniary casualties. There are armies of heavily leveraged capital out there trying to take your financial lifeblood. Don’t let them! If you can stay alive, then through a well-planned-and-executed strategy you can accomplish your goal of capital expansion within your trading accounts. In this battle you need the best armaments you can get… I use the tools from the Arps arsenal, particularly the ones in the Scan Sentry Toolkit.

    Here are some of the opportunities I am finding this week using these tools.

    _____Longs_____

    ONXX

    (Note the pullback to the short-term Trender after TriupleTrender synchronization accompanied by a Pullback23 signal within a Bull flag ).

    CEG

    (I like that this one broke through resistance and is now making new highs).

    HCP

    (This one made new highs and pulled back. It now has a Pullback23 at resistance. Beware, this will likely find more resistance around $40.40).

    AEE

    (I like that this has made new highs and has pulled back to resistance with all three Radar indicators and the Triple Trender all bullish).


    _____Shorts_____

    POT

    (All three Radar tools are turning bearish with a Pullback23 signal after a nice bearish Pivot divergence several weeks ago).

    DDS

    (One bar wipes out a Bullish Triple Trender with a nice bearish Pivot divergence in Radar1 Fear/Greed and the Radar2 Price Leader).

    BRY

    (This one shows a bearish Type II "Trend Divergence” in the Radar2 Price Leader while at the same time a bearish Pullback 23 signal).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • Flag Alerts!

    Flags Alert!

    By Jan Arps

    It’s almost Veterans’ Day, and flags will be fluttering in the breeze throughout these United States.

    Mr. Market is preparing for Veterans’ Day as well by creating an unusual proliferation of Bull Flag patterns, signifying the resumption of the uptrend after a pullback.

    After a strong trending move as we have had over the past several weeks, prices frequently pause to take a breath.  Prices consolidate as traders gather their forces for the next assault up or down.  During this process the price charts often generate a brisk pullback move against the prevailing trend direction that shakes out the weak trend followers.  Such a pullback move often resembles the rectangular shape of a drooping flag.  In an uptrend, the previous upward thrust line would represent the flagpole, while the subsequent pullback swing would be the flag.  This is called a bull flag.  In a downtrend, a downward thrust line would represent the flagpole, while the subsequent upward pullback would be the flag.  This is called a bear flag.

    Once you have identified a flag pattern on your chart, a breakout through the top of the flag on high volume signals a continuation of the uptrend.  You can project a price target for the trend continuation move after a flag pattern by measuring the length of the flagpole.  In a bull flag pattern, if you add that length to the bottom right corner of the flag you can usually predict the price range where the next price swing is likely to end and you can use that as a profit target to exit your position.

    Below are examples of several flag patterns on current charts, as identified by the Arps Flag Patterns tools for charting and RadarScreen® The flag patterns are shown in white, with a white dot showing the breakout point and a series of white dots starting on the bar where the breakout occurred which show the upside price target for that pattern.

    TSO – Breakout 26.79,  Target 32.56

    ITW – Breakout: 49.72, Target 56.84

    OXY – Breakout 94.52, Target 119.34

    Other Bull Flag signals include:

    Symbol Breakout Price Target Price
    TYC 45.25 50.08
    LXK 33.14 37.70
    GPS 19.68 22.25
    MCP 40.66 47.77
    HAL 37.44 43.24
    GLD 170.29 179.71
  • A few I'm looking at

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report November 6

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning November 7.

    Last week I wrote that I wanted to be ready to go down with the market mistress, and it’s a good thing that I was. Although, the S&P index was only down 2.4% on the week, my short recommendations managed to fall an average of almost 8%; while my long prospects only lost an average of 1.5%. My point is not to boast but to clarify that, even though at the end of last week I was bullish on the market in general, it pays to be ready for anything. We must humbly accept that no person (including ourselves) knows what the market will do, and take complete responsibility for our trading by being as prepared as we can be for any eventuality .

    So what am I looking for now? At this point it appears to me that the S&P index has moved its trading range up from its previous boundaries of 1110 and 1220 to the point that now 1220 appears to be support instead of resistance. If that level holds we could see a rally into the end of the year. If that support level fails, then I believe we could see the market get much heavier. It looks to me as though the distribution phase of this two year rally is already well under way. As always, I’m going to try and be ready to earn some profits short term as well as long term either way.

    And now here are a few symbols identified by the “Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit” that I am looking at this week.

    _____Longs_____

    GRMN

    (This is a nice breakout to new highs on a Pullback 23 followed by a pullback to the previous resistance level at the short-term Triple Trender ).

    SRE

    (This one has a bullish Pullback23 at support within a Flag pattern ).

    _____Shorts_____

    KO

    (Note Pullback 23 after a nice pivot divergence with Radar2 Price Leader ).

    APKT

    (Note the overbought Trend Exhaustion1 signal in a pullback in a downtrend. Beware the pivot divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator ).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

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Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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