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Monthly Archives: October 2011

  • Riding that Bucking Bovine

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 31

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning Halloween 2011.

    The American equities markets sure liked the news that came out of Europe mid-week last week. As you probably know, some of the world’s largest (and most leveraged) banks were once again promised an inconceivable amount of money in order to protect them from severe losses from some bad loans, this time in the form of government debt. It didn’t take long for some of that optimism to find its way into the American markets and quickly spark the bulls to decisively break out of our two and a half month trading range. What a ride that was. As a trader, sometimes we are like the cowboy in the rodeo whose job it is to try and ride that volatile bovine without getting bucked off  or severely injured.

    Two weeks ago I wrote in this blog that, within the next few weeks, the S&P would break out of its upper range and then it would likely pullback one more time only to be followed by a rally to the upside again where it would find resistance around 1255 and 1300.  Well here we are today with the S&P taking a breather at around 1280 after climbing 200 points in three weeks.

    Consequently, as I conducted my scans this weekend for trading opportunities, I found it particularly difficult to find any good short selling signals. Most of the set-ups I like to look for are currently bullish. Nonetheless, I like to be prepared for the whims of the market mistress. If she wants to go down, I want to be ready to sell short with some short-term trading opportunities while she does. If she wants to keep rallying, which is the general trend I expect, I’ve got some buying set-ups I’m looking at as well.  I’ll share some of these with you here.  Please note, these are not trading recommendations; these are examples to show you how I do my technical analysis to find trading opportunities.

    And now here are a few stocks identified by the “Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit” that I am looking at for short term trading opportunities this week.

    _____Longs_____

    CAM

    (Note the pullback into the short-term Triple Trender, the accelerating Radar2 Price Leader, and growing bullish histogram bars in the Radar1 Fear/Greed and Radar3 Trend Strength indicators).

    RRC

    ( I like the combination of the Pullback 23 signal within the Bull Flag pattern combined with the recent pullback to the short-term Triple Trender).

    CMS

    ( This one has made new highs on increasing Radar1 strength and pulled back to resistance levels. I'ld like to see a little more acceleration in the Radar2 Price leader from here. )

    UA

    ( Although this stock may pullback to the $81.50 range, I like the upside potential of this one).


    _____Shorts_____

    DISH

    ( Note the Piullback 23 signal as the Triple Trender confirms bearishness).

    VRTX

    ( Here's a bearish Pullback 23 at the short-term Trender of the Triple Trender on a symbol which failed to rally with the rest of the market).

    HMSY

    ( When one bar breaks all three Trenders of the Triple Trender it usually gets my attention).


    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.
  • How I Trade Equities

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 23

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 23.

    I was talking this weekend with a couple of friends of mine from a local IBD (Investor’s Business Daily) group who follow my weekly report. Thanks guys!!! Some of them had been following some of my specific stock recommendations for months. It occurred to me that there may be some misunderstanding as to the type of stock trading for which I am offering technical analysis. Although I do have some longer term stock investments, I am a very short term stock trader. Not quite a day trader, but more aptly a ‘litttle-swing’ trader. It is for this kind of trade that I am posting my weekly technical analysis. I am generally in and out of my trade in 2 to 8 days.

    First I look at how much I am willing to risk. Ordinarily I like to use a short-term Arps Trender for my stop loss, but if I am entering on the wrong side of the Arps Trender  I will calculate a volatility factor (ATR/Avg price) and risk less than 1.5 of that volatility unit. My goal is to make 4% or better on my 'little-swing' trade.  Be wary though, as this will sometimes create some relatively skewed risk/reward ratios. That’s why I like to be prepared with both long and short possibilities so that,  in general, I can take my positions in the direction of the broader market movement. In this way I endeavor to keep as much wind at my back as possible.  On occasion I will hold onto a stock longer if I believe that I have made a good entry on a trend, but usually I will get out as soon as I get a significant signal from the Arps Price Leader (Radar2) on my daily chart.

    Of course, every trader must operate within a method that suits their own personality as well as their account size. And every trader must take complete responsibility for the outcome of each trade. I am not recommending my system to anybody; I am simply describing a process which works for me. I have the advantage of having access to some of the best technical analysis tools available, and I am trying to share that edge with you. I hope that this helps clarify the type of trading I am describing in these posts, and that perhaps it may give you some ideas for your own trading process.

    And now here are a few stocks identified by the “Scan Sentry Toolkit” that I am looking at this week and some of the analysis behind my decisions.

    _____Longs_____

    SHW

    (After pulling back to support we have a breakout of the flag pattern with all three Radar tools pointing up. Nice “Trend” divergence in the Radar2 Price Leader as well. This is precisely the pattern I predicted in a post several weeks ago  )

    SYNA

    (Another flag pattern breakout on very high volume with all three Radar tools and the Triple Trender looking strong with potential to get stronger ).

    GNTX

    (Note the recent pullback into the Triple Trender closing the unfilled gap, and the Radar2 Price Leader accelerating while the upward pointing blue histogram bars of the Radar3 Trend Strength Index identify an up-trend.)

    _____Shorts_____

    BAS

    (I like the Overbought signal when Radar 3 Trend Strength Index is bearish. And I like the “Bearish Trend Divergence” in the Price Leader as well as in the Fear/Greed indicator. Beware, the Triple Trender is bullish!).

    KEG

    (Note the Pullback 23 and the overbought signal in the downtrend. Also the bear flag target is still unattained).

    SLW

    (Note Pullback23 and Overbought signal and synchronization of the bearish Triple Trender. Bear flag formation forming. Beware if the Radar2 Price Leader gets above its centerline).

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    (Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.)
  • For Both Speculators and Spectators

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 17

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 17.

    Well, it is obvious to most technical analysts that the S&P index is once again resting at the top end of the trading range of the last 2 months, and folks want to know if it will break through this resistance, or once again be turned back by the persistent growling of the economic pessimists. For what it’s worth here’s my two cents.

    The NQ has already broken above its two month highs and has retraced 80% of its losses since the Summer highs of July . This index is a leader I expect the rest of the American markets to follow. Also, I expect the bulls to run the buy stops which are certainly placed above the S&P index highs around 1225. This should add more fuel to our current rally inspiring even more bulls to jump in on the breakout momentum. At that point the ‘Big Money’ may cash in a little bit by selling into the rally and potentially forcing the market into retesting our current levels which will by then be a support level. This would create another buying opportunity which could push the S&P index up to the next resistance levels around 1258 and 1300. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NQ retest 2420 in the next couple of weeks.

    Of course this is all speculation… That’s why they call us speculators. No one knows what the market will do. But as long as my trading account can handle it, I’d rather be a speculator than a spectator!  As always, I’ll be looking for both long and short opportunities so that I can be ready to take advantage of what the markets actually do. Below I offer for your own perusal some of those stocks that I am looking at this week… and some graphic examples of the technical indicators I use to make my trading decisions.

    Here are a few stocks that I am looking at...

    _____Longs_____

    ARUN

    (Note the breakout from consolidation and the early trend detection from the Triple Trender and the Radar3 Trend Strength indicator.  Also note the increased buying indicated by the Radar1 Fear/Greed histogram and accelerating price movement in the Radar2 Price Leader.)


    NEM

    (This looks like a nice pull-back in our uptrend, identified by our Pullback 23 indicator. Also note the accelerating Radar2 Price Leader and strengthening Radar1Fear/Greed).


    ACGL

    (Note the breakout of the flag pattern with the target at a previous high. Also note Triple Trender alignment and accelerating Radar2 Price Leader and increasing bullishness in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).


    _____Shorts_____

    ATI

    (Note the Type 2 “Trend Divergence” in the Radar2 Price Leader and the Pullback 23 signal coincident with an overbought signal in our TT6 Trend Exhaustion 1 indicator).


    PKX

    (Note the coincident Pullback 23 with the overbought indication from our latest TT6 Trend Exhaustion 1 indicator  near resistace. Also note a Type 2 “Trend Divergence” in the Radar2 Price Leader).


    ACW

    (Note pullback to the short-term line of the Triple Trender coinciding with a Pullback 23 signal within a bearish  flag pattern).


    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    

  • Occupy a Stock Position on Wall Street

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 9

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 10.

    Well the past week has been a wild ride, giving the quick and responsive trader plenty of opportunities to make (or lose) money going both ways. SGEN was my pick of the week gaining 17%, and I am still holding onto it for more. We were in the money on our bearish picks on Monday, but were stopped out at break-even on that incredible rally on Tuesday afternoon.

    I heard many pundits profess all kinds of reasons for the powerful upthrust of last Tuesday afternoon, citing news articles from the Financial Times or comments made or not made by Chairman Bernanke or European finance ministers. I say BUNK! To me the reason for that rally was and is clear…. there were a lot more buyers than there were sellers. Granted, many of those buyers may have been covering short positions. Others may have seen the market adequately oversold and bought into that weakness as I predicted last week. The bottom line is that resistance held at 1070 and now that is clearly our line in the sand.

    So what do we have for this week? I don’t see this rally extending past 1215 in the S&P, with significant resistance at 1195. As usual I am looking at opportunities in both directions in order to best take advantage of what the market shows me.

    Here are a few stocks that I am looking at.

    _____Longs_____

    BBBB

    Note price broke resistance 6 bars ago, then pulled back to support, now is making new highs. Bullish Radar 1 Fear/Greed and Radar 3 Trend Strength Index.


    SHW

    Note new price highs (since the August collapse), Radar1 Fear/Greed turning bullish, Radar2 Price Leader accelerating, and Radar3 Trend Strength Index turning bullish. May retest $77.50 before moving higher.


    BKE

    Note Triple Trender synchronized all three trenders. Look for pullback close to short term Trender for entry. Also note Radar1 Fear/Greed turning bullish, Radar 2 Price Leader accelerating, and Radar3 Trend Strength Index turning bullish. Radar 1 Fear/Greed demonstrating accumulation pattern. Beware of unfilled gap...


    _____Shorts_____

    LXK

    Note unfinished Bear flag pattern and Pullback 23 setting up at resistance.


    VLY

    Note Pullback 23 at resistance.


    CBSH

    Note Pullback 23 and unfullfilled Bear Flag pattern. Alao Radar 1 Fear/Greed still very bearish.


    Good trading, and celebrate living,

    Hawk

  • Deja vu?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report October 2

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning October 2.

    The S&P index closed near the low end of September's trading range which we were also testing this time last week.  In fact Friday’s close is only 2 points off of the close from the previous week. In the long run it’s almost as if this past week didn’t even happen. There are, however,  a few subtle differences in the technical analysis between this week and last… The Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator today is showing less selling pressure than it did last week. In fact, using a sensitivity setting of 6,  it is pretty neutral at this time. Also the fast line of the Radar2 Price Leader (3,5) has crossed the slow line. It is not only higher than it was when price was at this level a week ago, but this week it crossed just above it’s centerline out of a state of deceleration. These are some of the reasons I am looking for bullish signals this evening. Mind you, there is clearly no indication of bullish control of the markets; nonetheless, it appears to me as price rests near key support, that the bears have lost a bit of their momentum and as a consequence there may some buying opportunities.

    Although at this time I have a slight bias to the upside, I am also looking for some good shorting possibilities in order to hedge my prospects.

    Here are a few stocks that I am looking at.

    _____Longs_____

    SGEN

    Note that we have just pulled back to the breakout price in a Bull flag. Which is also the short-term Trender  on a recent bullish Triple Trender signal. Also note rising fast-line on Radar2.

    NEM

    Note the Pullback 23, another pullback in a bullish flag breakout, and a trend divergenge in the Radar2 Price Leader.

    SPRD

    Note pullback 23 is setting up and a Type II Trend divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed  and Radar2 Price Acceleration oscillators.

    _____Shorts_____

    SKS

    Note the pullback to the short-term Trender on the previous bar to the recently aligned Triple Trender, and the decelerating cross of the Radar2 Price Leader.

    BMS

    Note decelerating Radar2 Price Leader, and recent Trender Pullbacks.

    GBCI

    Note increasing bearish pressure in Radar1 Fear/Greed and recent Trender Pullback to aligned Triple Trender.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

5 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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