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Monthly Archives: August 2011

  • How to Manage Volatility

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report August 29

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with stock recommendations from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning August29.

    Today I want to talk about the Triple Trender. As most of you may know, the Triple Trender is based on the Arps Trender run at three different sensitivity settings.  It has proven itself to provide good early trend identification signals when all three ‘Trenders’ come into alignment, meaning when they are all three on the same side of the price bars. The Trender is a very sensitive tool, and there is an aspect of it which adapts to volatility within its calculations. Therefore, in times like these where, for example, the Average True Range of the S&P e-mini contract has quickly gone from around 20 up to 45, it may become necessary to adjust the sensitivity settings of your Triple Trender until the markets settle down a little bit.  I have included a few snapshots of the ES contract with the Triple Trender applied at it’s default setting of 2,5,7 and then one again at 1.5, 3.5, 5.5.

    Notice how when the volatility was much lower, the standard settings provided good signals indicating when the market was trending and when it became choppy and range-bound. Now that the volatility is double what it was then, it may be time to consider more sensitive settings until the volatility settles down a bit.

    You may wonder how I came up these revised sensitivity settings. The last time we saw the S&P e-mini contract approach 40 from a lower range on the ATR indicator was in Februrary of 2008.  Notice how the more sensitive Triple Trender settings help us to navigate the trend better until the ATR indicator recedes back to around 20.

    As we know in hindsight, the volatility increased as the year progressed and the market went over a cliff. Our future is yet unknown. As for me, when volatility doubles its average range, I use more sensitive Triple Trender settings.

    We’re happy to announce that we’ve recently translated many of our most popular tools (including the Triple Trender) into Ninja Script for the Ninja Trader clientele, and I will be providing an introduction to some of those tools at a Ninja sponsored webinar this Thursday. Unfortunately, I won’t have time on Thursday to go into minute detail on all the ways you can use these sophisticated tools, but it should be a good introduction to anyone just becoming familiar with the Arps tools.  You can also get some good instruction at any time on how to use some of these tools on the videos page of our website.

    So, without further ado, here are the stocks that our indicators are recognizing as potential trading opportunities this week. Remember, in these volatile times, stock trading becomes trickier and riskier. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

    And now for this weeks stock recommendations….

    Longs_____Shorts

    SGEN               KT

    CBOE                DEI

    FCN

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    ______________________________Longs____________________________

    _________________________Shorts___________________________________

  • Daughters Dancing and Short Selling

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report.  This is Sunday night with stock recommendations  for the week of August 22. But first, here’s a little food for thought as a preface to this week’s stock picking ideas.

    Today I went to a funeral for one friend and a wedding for another. I watched families I know and strangers I don’t laughing, crying and dancing together. Attending the wedding was a dear friend of mine who has an inoperable tumor growing on his brain; and I watched him dance with his daughters. The daughters don’t really care if he’s on the correct side of the market… they’re simply glad to have the opportunity to dance with their father and celebrate life with him.

    Let’s keep these markets in perspective. We all know that trading in these markets can be nerve-wracking, exciting, profitable and dangerous... very time consuming and even addictive. The equities markets look very bearish to me at the moment, right now perhaps the safest long term investment you can make is to dance with your family.

    As many of you who have been following this blog for some time may know, I like to scan for (and suggest) both long and short positions in order to be ready for market moves in either direction. This week (as always) I have been scanning the markets for tradable set-ups using the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit and, honestly, the only trades that are coming up are short trades. There are some inverse ETF’s and some bond fund ETF’s that are presenting themselves as potential  buys; but neither of those instruments really provide a good ‘hedge’ in case we get a bounce in the market this week. Honestly,  even though this may be a good buying opportunity, right now I don’t see any leaders to the upside that I would be willing to trade yet.

    Therefor here are some stocks to sell short. I have come by them by performing scans configured with the Arps TTB Pullback23 indicator, the Arps Triple Trender,  and other filters. So, through the laborious efforts of technical analysis made so much easier by the Arps Scan Sentry tools, I have come up with these ideas to look at for 'short' entry possibilities for short term swing trade positions.

    All of these symbols showed recent signals in the Radar2 Price Acceleration Oscillator.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    Here are the picks…

    (Shorts)

    YHOO

    CRUS

    SWKS

    GBCI

    BAK

    COV


  • Some More Stocks I'm Looking At

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report August 14

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night August 14 with a few more ideas for stock trades this week.

    I hope you had a profitable week last week. It was one of those weeks where skilled day-traders and scalpers could make a lot of money, and investors were chewing their fingernails off. I enjoyed trading the tsunami of volatility which we experienced, and am now getting prepared to put on positions which I may hold for a little bit longer period of time (days to weeks)… we’ll see.

    Here are a couple more long positions I am considering.

    DTLK

    FCFS

    XTXI


    EE


    KCG


    Of course, I want to keep my portfolio balanced in order to be prepared for the vicissitudes which the market may throw at us. So, here are a couple of short positions I'm considering putting on as well:

    REGN


    AAN


    GET


    CXW


    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

  • Anyone Want to Get on a Bull Right Now?

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report for August 10

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report.This is Wednesday night and I wanted to drop you a quick note with some of the stocks I’m looking at to buy tomorrow or in the near term.  I know that sounds pretty scary right now but we are, after all, in the business of risk. If you decide to trade in these times you should, of course, adjust your position size and stop loss to accommodate the current volatility in the markets.

    Looking for interesting trading opportunities,  I scanned for stocks using the TTB TE 1 (R2) tool. I set the Use_OB/OS to true and set Ob-zone and OS-zone both to 0. Then I looked for stocks where this indicator crossed above that line in the last 4 days.  This found  for me stocks which, in the midst of the recent crash showed price acceleration to the upside. Not surprisingly, many of the stocks this scan found were companies which mine for and deal in gold. That seems like a sector which may be able to grow in this global economy.

    Here are some particularly interesting ones I found.

    ABX

    (Note the Flag pattern developing and the previous divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator)


    EGO

    (Note the Bull flag which just broke out and the increasing Radar1 Fear/Greed indication).


    AUQ

    (Note the little rising valleys in the Radar2 Price Acceleration Oscillator).

    One of my other searches was to look for stocks that did not dip to their 12 month lows during the recent crash. Here are some that I found.

    MXWL

    (Note that this is still above the Arps Trender and note the divergences in all three Radar tools).

    ELON

    (Note the divergences between the price lows and the Radar1Fear/Greed and Radar2 Price Acceleration indicators )

    REXX

    Take caution;  please note that I consider these all bullish opportunities in a bearish market. There are plenty of bears out there right now; but I will let them offer their own selling recommendations elsewhere.

    Again, please careful and disciplined,

    Hawk

  • Radar on the Markets

    Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report August 6

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with ideas for stock trading  for the week beginning August 8.

    Wow, what a week. We all know what happened; at least we watched it unfold. As for last weekends stock picks, well, on Monday every one was showing a profit. But with the massive sell off of the entire market, those 4 particular recommendations ended up averaging a 2.5% loss if you had held them all week (which we didn't do). Not bad considering the S&P lost over 8% last week.

    Originally my plan this week  was to discuss Jan Arps’ Trend Exhaustion tools a little bit and let everyone know that they are now available individually, or as a package in their own tool-kit which includes TE1(R2), TE2(EMRY), TE3(GD), and the Pullback23 indicator. Indeed there are some recent signals in the Trend Exhaustion tools. However, with the historic downgrading of US Treasuries by the S&P rating agency, the uncertainty in the European markets, and the likely volatility that will ensue, I am wary of using the Trend Exhaustion tools this weekend to find particular equity set-ups. Given the expected high volatility this week I will need more confirmation.  I believe it would be safer and wiser to trade one of the equity indexes either via a futures contract or one of the ETF’s than it would be to try and trade individual stocks.

    My analysis anticipates the markets will gap lower on Monday (granted I’m no economist); and I will be watching the Radar tools… especially Radar1 on a low sensitivity setting. If the indicator quickly shows longer than normal histogram bars I will enter in that direction. I expect that by that time the Radsar2 Price Acceleration Oscillator will have already made a quick move in the direction of the initial selling or buying. Given the rapidly rising volatility the last few weeks I will use the Arps Trender with a sensitivity setting of 1 or 2 on a daily chart as my stop unless that value exceeds my risk tolerance, in which case I will pass on the trade.

    Once again I would like to thank you for taking your valuable time to read this blog. While you’re here, don’t forget to explore the rest of our website ( janarps.com ) and view our collection of YouTube videos demonstrating the use of some of our best selling indicators. And if you have not yet downloaded your free version of the Arps Universal Swing Tool, please go to our Free Stuff page and help yourself to this ‘Swiss Army Knife’ of price measurement. I want to point out that many of our most popular tools are available for the Ninja Trader and eSignal platforms.  Also, feel free to call us at 336-282-1237 to discuss how we can program your trading ideas for Trade Station, MultiCharts, or Ninja Trader. We have been providing technical analysis programming services for over a quarter century now and look forward to offering you that experience to help you develop your trading ideas.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

5 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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