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Monthly Archives: May 2011

  • Hawk's Picks- Memorial Day Special

    Hawk’s Picks – Memorial Day Special

    It’s Memorial Day weekend, and in honor of the holiday, flags are fluttering in the breeze all over town.  Accordingly, I thought this would be an appropriate time to look at one of our favorite trading patterns, Bull Flags and Bear Flags.

    After a strong trending move, prices frequently pause to take a breath.  Prices consolidate as traders gather their forces for the next assault up or down.  During this process the price charts often generate a brisk pullback move against the prevailing trend direction that shakes out the weak trend followers.  Such a pullback move often resembles the rectangular shape of a drooping flag.  In an uptrend, the previous upward thrust line would represent the flagpole, while the subsequent pullback swing would be the flag.  This is called a bull flag.  In a downtrend, a downward thrust line would represent the flagpole, while the subsequent upward pullback would be the flag.  This is called a bear flag.

    Once you have identified a flag pattern on your chart, a breakout through the top of the flag on high volume signals a continuation of the uptrend.  You can project a price target for the trend continuation move after a flag pattern by measuring the length of the flagpole.  In a bull flag pattern, if you add that length to the bottom right corner of the flag you can usually predict the price range where the next price swing is likely to end and you can use that as a profit target to exit your position.

    Conversely, in a bear flag pattern you can subtract the flagpole length from the upper right corner of the flag or pennant to predict how far down the downtrend is likely to extend.

    So, through the laborious efforts of technical analysis made so much easier by the Arps Scan Sentry tools which include the ability to scan for bull and bear flag pattern setups and plot these patterns and their  breakout and target levels on a chart, we have come up with the following ideas to look at for entry possibilities for positions this week. Remember, although symbol selection and timing is important, sound money management is the most important key to long term success in these financial markets.

    Here are the picks for the week after Memorial Day, all of which have exhibited recent flag pattern breakouts…

    Symbol         Breakout Price      Current Price     Target Price    Suggested Stop Price

    Buys:

    TLT                   96.19                   96.47                    100.62                 95.29

    ALB                  69.85                    70.55                      81.35                 67.65

    PM                   70.67                    70.52                      74.37                 68.46

    Sells:

    OPEN             90.16                      88.14                       66.40                  94.44

    ISRG             346.03                   344.26                     326.89                350.55

    CAAS                7.72                       7.65                         5.62                      8.73

  • Stock Picks for the Week Beginning May 23

    Welcome to Hawk's Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night May 22nd with stock picks for early this week.

    The results of last week's stock picks were buoyed by the 20% profit on the short position of LPHI, with the profits and the losses from the rest of the picks more or less canceling each other out.

    This week's selections include indications from our popular Pullback 23 indicator, our Trend Exhaustion1 Radar tool (with the Use_OB/OS input set to true using OB/OS settings of 50/-50), as well as indications from a tool we are developing which looks for short term signals from extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

    So, through the laborious efforts of technical analysis made so much easier by the Arps Scan Sentry tools, I have come up with the following ideas to look at for entry possibilities for short term positions this week. Remember, although stock selection is important, sound money management is the most important key to long term success in these financial markets.

    Here are the picks…

    (Longs) (Shorts)

    IACI            PFCB

    CHU           TAP

    FL               ASNA

    CFN            FSLR

    All of these symbols showed recent signals in the Trend Exhaustion 1 tool.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

  • Will It Start Falling Like Rain?

    Welcome to Hawk's Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night May 15th with stock picks for early this week.

    According to a local weather prognosticator the markets will likely keep rising. Yep, I got that from a veritable walking almanac whom I happen to know. Let me explain....

    It has been raining a lot out here... I mean a lot... I know that the people in the floodplains of the Mississippi River know what I'm talking about. They really are aware of how to gauge how much rain is a lot of rain; their very lives depend on it.

    Well, I live on an island in Washington state, near Canada, where one trader recently presented to me his own analysis of the stock market. He correctly pointed out that it has been raining here more or less nonstop since about the beginning of this market rally, which started around September of last year. He went on to point out that the ratio of daytime hours of overcast or rain to those of sunshine was similar to the ratio of hours when the indexes went sideways or up versus when the markets went down. His logic went on to predict that as long as it keeps raining out here, the markets will probably continue to rise... after all, like Fibonacci ratios, everything is a natural phenomenon and linked together in some kind of gestalt web. Well, statistically his numbers actually look like they may be close to accurate; but, I believe I will make more money using the Arps Scan Sentry toolkit to help with my trading decisions, which monitors demonstrable market patterns. I'll let him trade from his rain-gauge.

    Last week's stock picks did pretty well, with the one exception of CHBT, highlighted by ERTS and WCG combining for a profit of 15%.

    So, through the laborious efforts of technical analysis made so much easier by the Arps Scan Sentry tools, I have come up with several ideas to look at for entry possibilities for short term swing positions this week. Remember, although stock selection is important, sound money management is the most important key to long term success in these financial markets.

    Here are the picks…

    (Longs) (Shorts)

    GIS                     CSCO

    BBY                    CGA

    K                         FMER

    MMM                 LPHI

    All of these symbols showed recent signals in the Trend Exhaustion 1 tool.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

  • Mothers and Stocks

    Welcome to Hawk's Scan Sentry Report. It’s Mother’s Day, time to respect your mother… the source of your being.... which means that this is Sunday night with stock picks for early this week.
    I’m keeping it simple this week after most of last weeks long picks turned against me or went nowhere by the end of the week; the exception was TNAV, a Triple Trender signal which was up 7.7% by the end of the week. My short picks all did pretty well last week as would be expected with a general market decline of almost 3%.
    This week I am offering three longs and three shorts. These were identified by the TradeStation scanner looking for Pullbacks 23 and other signals.  Please remember, these are projected to be short term positions but not day trading suggestions; and although stock selection is important, never make a trade without sound money-management principles in place. This would include a stop loss consistent with your risk tolerance.  Here are this week’s picks…

    Longs:            Shorts:

    WCG             CMA
    ALB              CHBT
    ERTS            KMX

    All of these symbols showed recent signals in the Trend Exhaustion 1 (Radar2) indicator.

    May the trend be with you!

    Hawk

  • The Record is Clear

    Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report.  This is Mayday Sunday with stock picks for early this week.

    It is very important to keep detailed records of your trading process. That is the only way we can empirically learn how to trade these unpredictable markets. Of course, because of the nearly infinite permutations that the market takes, what appears to be true one week may not be true the next. That is part of the beauty of these markets, they are always changing and showing themselves in unexpected ways. Nonetheless, the best we can do is to strive to recognize patterns from the data that we have… patterns in the markets as well as patterns in our own trading methodology. Along with other important trading data, it is extremely helpful to keep track of your reasons as well as your methods for entering and exiting your trades.

    As I was reviewing last week’s Scan Sentry picks, several observations were noted. Last week my short position picks did not do as well as my longs (as would be expected when the indexes break two year highs)…  and although some of the long picks did significantly better then the S&P futures contract (PSSI, LUK, SSL in particular), not all of my recommendations turned out to be profitable. The best ones were generally derived from the TrendExhaustion1 tool giving me signals when the overbought/oversold cross occurred about the same time the fast line/slow line cross occurred.  As it turns out I also noted that, in general, those symbols which did well on Monday carried on and improved throughout the week. Those which were laggards on Monday failed to gather enough momentum to beat the S&P index. That is another example of why it is so vitally important to have an exit strategy, as well as an entry strategy, for every trade. Stop loss is, of course, essential; and a reasonable profit target is extremely helpful. Sometimes I also use a conditional timed exit as well. If my position has not made any progress toward my expected results within a few days,  I’ll exit at break-even or at  a small loss and look for other opportunities.

    This week  I am looking for two different types of set-ups using the Arps Scan Sentry tools in the TradeStation scanner: pullbacks in this  uptrend and bullish breakouts from consolidation. For short opportunities I am looking for pullback opportunities as well. Below you will find my picks along with some charts showing the Scan Sentry indications for each of the selections.

    Symbol-

    (longs)                         (shorts)

    CHD                            TSTC

    IHS                              HT

    CL

    DTV

    IMAX

    CATM

    CERN

    TNAV

    All of these symbols showed recent signals in the Trend Exhaustion 1 tool.

    May the trend be with you,

    Hawk

    

5 Item(s)

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Full Risk Disclosure

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