Jan Arps' Traders' Toolbox

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report February 20

The bulls seem to be driving the American equities train right now, and they appear to have a full head of stem.  The markets are making new highs and the economic data for the US economy appears to be improving. As noted in this publication several weeks ago, I am still quite bullish on American equities for the long term (6 months-1yr) but I will be prepared for short term bearish positions (several days) as the market presents such opportunities. Here are a few stocks that I am looking at this week.

For those of you who follow these reports regularly and study the charts, you may notice that this week I have added an automatic trendline indicator to the charts which draws the most current up-trendlines and down-trendlines and plots a dot when trendline breakout and pullback signals occur. If you have any questions about what the other indicators on these charts are showing you please click on this link for an explanation of each of the tools displayed.

Now, here are some stocks that I’m watching for trading opportunities this week…

_____Longs_____

TAP

(I like the combination flag breakout and trendline breakout resulting in the resumption of the bullish Triple Trender).

BX

(After a pullback to the breakout price which is now support, note the Trend Exhaustion 1 OverSold signal along with the Pullback 23 signal at a pullback into the Triple Trender).

_____Shorts_____

PMC

(A nice Pullback 23 into a bearish Triple Trender near the down-trendline).

CLF

(Radar1-Fear/Greed  and Radar3-Trend Strength have both just turned bearish along with the Triple Trender following a bearish Pivot Divergence. I expect it to test the lows around $57.00).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report February 13

As predicted several Scan Sentry Reports ago the S&P 500 futures contract broke through resistance at 1330 and then quickly raced to test the next resistance level at 1350 (please see “Finding Divergences the Easy Way” Jan 16). We have pulled back from that level and 1330 is now support. After examining historical recoveries from previous market crashes I expect the S&P to eventually break through 1350 and enthusiastically test new highs.   Of course it could just as easily go down; the market doesn’t care what I expect. That’s why I always try to be prepared in my short term trading for a full gambit of possibilities.

Not surprisingly  on many of the charts I’m studying this week I’m finding new highs. Therefore, in this report I will endeavor to demonstrate how I discriminate between what I perceive as failed highs which represent shorting opportunities and new highs which may be breakouts from congestion with bullish potential.

My primary tools for culling out failed breakouts are divergence analysis using the Radar1 Fear/Greed Indicator and the Radar2 Price Leader. I also look for signals from the Arps Trend Exhaustion tools. For potential bullish positions I like to see strengthening Radar1 Fear/Greed and acceleration in the Radar2 Price Leader and/or a bullish Pullback 23 signal. The Triple Trender must be bullish as well.

Here’s an image of the Radar-Screen I use to sort my scans for trading set-up.

Let’s take a look at a few stocks that are on my watch list this week and I’ll show you what I mean….

_____Longs_____

ATW

(In this one we see a nice Pullback 23 coinciding with breakout to new highs after a recent pullback into the Triple Trender).

EFX

( Another breakout to new highs after a consolidation period in which the Radar1 Fear/Greed Indicator showed a lot more buying than selling . Radar 3 Trend Strength shows that we are already in a strong and sustained uptrend ).

_____Shorts_____

RAS

(Although this one also made new highs, Please note the Trend Exhaustion2 signal one bar ago combined with a Bearish divergence in both Radar1 Fear/Greed and Radar2 Price Leader).

SYY

(A synchronized Bearish Triple Trender after  bearish divergences in both Radar1 Fear/Greed and Radar2 Price Leader. Also note that the Radar3 Trend Strength has just turned bearish).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report February 6

Today I want to show you another set-up I like to look for, and offer a few examples of it from current charts.  To find the early identification of a bullish trend I look for the Arps Triple Trender to turn bullish (below the price) on all three Trenders and combine that signal with a cross above the zero center-line of the Radar3 Trend Strength Index. It’s pretty simple really. The Triple Trender identifies the orientation of the trend across three different abstract time-frames; while the Radar 3 Trend Strength Index confirms the direction of the trend and identifies the strength of it. This works even better when supported by a divergence in the Radar1 Fear Greed Indicator or the Radar2 Price Leader. You should put your stop on the outside of the long-term Trender because the price will often pull back into the short-term or medium-term Trender before really moving in your direction with conviction .  This is a good set-up in both bullish and bearish directions…. But the markets are so bullish right now that it is currently a bit difficult to find this set-up as a short-selling signal.

I am currently bullish on the medium and long-term orientation of the American markets these days for reasons political and historical as well as technical.  But, as always, I am preparing myself with trading options in both directions. Here is a sampling of a few that are on my watchlist this week with examples from the set-up described above.

_____Longs_____

MA

(A good example of the set-up described above. Note the divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed Index before the breakout).

CDNS

(Here’s one that shows the Triple Trender and Radar 3 signal nicely. I expect it to pullback to resistance around $10.80 and fill the gap  ).

KSS

(This one is NOT confirmed by the Radar 3 Trend Strength Index as described above, but is a bullish Triple Trender preceded by a very nice divergence ).

_____Shorts_____

KMX

(Here’s a bearish example of the set-up described above. As it is already close to resistance at $29.50, I would still look for a pullback into the Triple Trender for a good entry price).

LINE

(Here’s a pullback into the short Trenders with a newly bearish Radar3 Trend Strength signal. Note the Radar2 Price Leader crossing under its center-line while the downward pointing blue bars of the Radar3 Trend Strength tool show a pullback indication).

NEM

(I like the Pullback 23 signal in the downtrend here ).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report January 30

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning January 30.

This week’s technical analysis will be short and sweet. After testing 1330, as predicted two Scan Sentry reports ago, the S&P daily futures contract has retreated a bit. As of this weekend the Radar2 Price Leader has officially moved south of the center-line into deceleration mode, and unless the market can generate some more buying pressure soon, the Radar1 Fear Greed indicator is exhibiting a Bearish Pivot divergence implying it may be time to exit long positions in anticipation of a ‘short–term’ market correction. If it does go south, we’re looking for resistance around 1280; and then 1260 will be the line in the sand. I’m looking to buy pullbacks in these areas.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the NQ contract come back and test the 2400 range in the near future.

Of course, the market will do what it wants… if we do break through 1330 to the upside on the ES contract the market will likely be hungry to test last year’s highs around 1350.

We’ll see…  I am, as always,  looking at trading opportunitieas in both directions so that I can be prepared to trade with the tides of the market index trends.  Here is a sampling of a few that are on my watchlist this week and some of the reasons why.

_____Longs_____

LOPE

(This is a stock which broke out to new highs with pleanty of buying pressure 12 bars ago and is retesting the breakout point. I like the Pullback 23 signal at this key juncture, as well as the upward pointing Radar2 Price Leader).

CCI

(Bullish Radar1, Radar2, Radar3, Triple Trender… it looks like the price has paused here. Look for a pullback into the Triple Trender for an entry for a longer term trade. Stop-loss around $43.48).

_____Shorts_____

PCG

(This is a test of a downward pointing trendline following a Bearish pivot divergence. Put your stop just above the Long-term Trender ar  $12.13).

CRR

(I like the Trender Pullback into the Long-term Trender just before the gap down. Not much buying pressure here).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report January 23

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning January 23.

This week I want to talk about a technical analysis technique that you probably already know about, and may already use… that is trendlines.  If you ask 10 traders to draw a trendline on the same chart you will likely get 10 different lines… or more.  Well, as far as I’m concerned there is one ‘proper’ way to draw an up-trendline and that is to connect the most recent swing low with the next most recent lower swing low and project to the right. If there is no lower swing low, then a horizontal line at the most recent swing low will substitute for your uptrend line.  The same principle in reverse is true for downtrend lines. You connect the most recent swing high with the next most recent higher swing high and project to the right.

Once you have identified your trendlines they will typically work as support and resistance. The price may cross them and then take off in a new direction indicating a breakout, or the price may test them and then return to moving in the direction of the trendline indicating a pullback in a trend. Trendline pullbacks and breakouts can both be good entry points. Of course, if you are already in a position and the close penetrates the trendline which is going in your direction, you may want to exit your trade. However, I will usually use the Arps Trender as my exit line instead of the trendline because the Arps Trender is much more sensitive to the sideways motion of the price when it is consolidating.

Many (but not all) of the trades I’m looking at this week have been identified by our automatic trendline tools which help me identify the breakouts and pullbacks across the trendline. Let’s take a look at a sampling of this week’s watchlist.

_____Longs_____

SLV

(The silver ETF is a volatile stock, but I like the trendline breakout following the bullish pivot divergence. Also SLV is getting very close to a bullish Triple Trender alignment).

KCG

(A nice trendline breakout with plenty of buying bressure identified by the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator. All three Triple Trenders are bullish now).

OSUR

(Although this trendline breakout may pullback into the $10.00 range, I think that this stock has some longer term bullish potential).

_____Shorts_____

POR

(Another one of my favorite set-ups… a pullback into a recently synchronized Triple Trender preceeded by bearish divergence indications in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).

WPI

(This has broken down below the up-trendline, then pulled back up to test it and broken down again. Note the bearish ‘Trend’ or continuation divergence 6 bars ago).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report January 16

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning January 16.

As we all know, the S&P has been gradually making new highs since the beginning of the year. Although in late November the Triple Trender and Radar3 Trend Strength Index confirmed the most recent bullish thrust of the S&P  index (using the continuous index futures contract),  currently some of the indicators I’m looking at have not yet confirmed nor denied the likelihood of continuing this bullish trend .  We currently rest at a significant trend-line resistance.  A couple of down days and we will be looking at a Pivot divergence with Radar 1 Fear Greed and Radar 2 Price Leader. If we keep making a few more higher closes, then we can expect to see the contract  test 1330 and 1350.  I’m not predicting, but I am getting prepared.  I’m looking for both bullish and bearish opportunities and I’ll share a few of those with you here. On the charts below you will find a sampling of my watch-list for this week and some of the reasons why I find them interesting. This week many of these were identified with the Arps Auto-Divergence scanning tools… some of my favorite tools in my toolbox. Although they allow me to use any oscillator to which I have access in order to find the divergences, I prefer to format them using the Arps Radar2 Price Leader or Arps Radar1 Fear/Greed as my divergence oscillators of choice.

_____Longs_____

NU

(I like the coincidence of the Pullback 23 signal with the TE1-Oversold signal and the Bullish Trend-Divergence signal. Note that the divergence dot and trendline were plotted with the Arps Auto-Divergence tool (I thickened the line the tool drew in order to make it easier to see)).

ICE

(A nice Bullish Pivot Divergence identified by the Arps Deep Dip Double (DDD) and Deep Dip Triple (DDT) Auto-Divergence finders).

_____Shorts_____

DECK

(I like the confluence of the TE-1 Overbought signal and the Pullback 23 signal, confirming a Bearish Trend-Divergence).

BBY

(In this case, I like the first pullback into a newly synchronized Bearish Triple Trender coinciding with a bearish Pullback 23).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report January 9

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning January 9.

After gapping up almost 20 points on Tuesday to begin the new year, last week the S&P futures contract closed less than 1 point away from where it opened. So this week I’m looking at stocks that actually went up or down while the rest of the market went sideways. These are stocks that I am watching for a continuation pattern. Consequently, many of the equities I’m looking at this week have had recent Flag pattern breakouts as identified by the Arps TTB Flags scanner of the Scan Sentry Toolkit. Here’s an image of the scanner. 

The lighter green cells and the magenta ones represent Flag patterns that are setting up but have not yet broken out of their consolidation phase. Of course there are quite a few other set-ups  in my Scan Sentry scanner as well, but we’ll discuss those another day.  One of the reasons I like the Flags patterns is because they provide specific target objectives.

Here are a few of the stocks I’m looking at for short term profits (long and short) this week. Hopefully they will do better than the ones I published last week.

_____Longs_____

NTRI

(This flag has almost reached its target of $16.03 and all of the Radar tools are very bullish ).

FNB

(This is another flag pattern making higher highs with positive signs from the Radar tools and Triple Trender).

FTK

(Flotek has been showing a lot of accumulation since October. I expect it to reach its Flag target of $13.58).

CTAS

(Although this one is not a Flag breakout pattern, when the price blows by the Overbought Trend Exhaustion 1 signal it’s a good sign that you are now in a trending market).

_____Shorts_____

SPRD

(Although there may be a short term upward pullback here, I expect this one to follow through down to $12.12 on the recent Bear Flag breakout).

TDC

(I like the recent Bearish Pullback 23 along with the strong selling pressure identified by the Radar1 Fear/Greed histogram).

DKS

(This one is a little riskier; but I’ll be watching it nonetheless).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk Arps

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report January 1st

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the year beginning January 1st, 2012.

Please allow me to take this first of the year opportunity to wish each of you a happy and profitable 2012. In our trading we will sometimes make money and sometimes lose money; but remember, that is not the essence of who we are. Making money is the reason we trade, but the reason we want that money is for the comfort and security it brings.  Please keep sight of the truly precious things in your life… the reasons you and I strive so hard to trade successfully and increase the value of our accounts. We all want to live a full and happy life, and most of us want to share our time on this Creation with loved ones in good health. My wish for you in 2012 is that your life be filled with these and other good blessings. And I hope that these free weekly reports help bring our hopes and dreams to fruition.

And now for the weekly equities analysis. This week I am seeing more selling signals than buying ones. The S&P futures contract is once again at resistance and showing bearish divergences signals with the Radar2 Price Leader as well as the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator. However I am, as always, preparing myself with bullish as well as bearish stocks to watch this week. Below I have listed a few of them.

_____Shorts_____

RE

(Note the bearish ‘OB1’ signal coinciding with a Pullback 23. I also like the way this ‘bearish trend divergence’ has formed against Radar2 Price Leaser).

CDE

(Note the Bear Flag Breakout and then the pullback to the breakout price).

_____Long_____

FIRE

(I like the coincidence of the Trend Exhaustion 1 Oversold signal with the Pullback 23 signal. Warning…this should be considered a relatively risky short term opportunity… beware of the bearish pivot divergence with Radar1 Fear/Greed which has developed over the last several weeks ).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report. This is Sunday night with equities analysis from Jan Arps’ Scan Sentry Toolkit for the week beginning December 19.

The winter darkness is approaching its deepest and longest phase of the year; and all of the cultural celebrations which are (coincidentally?) celebrated this season are drawing attention and volume out of the American markets which I look at here in this blog every week.  A consequence of this is that the markets may be moved with a bit less volume and enthusiasm than at other times of the year.  Personally, I do not expect to be trading (much) this week.. but I’ll still offer a few stocks to look at which the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit has identified as potentially tradeable.

Before listing those equities however, I want to take this opportunity to thank you for the time you take to read these posts, and for your interest in the suite of Arps of tools. I hope that the New Year will enable your heart to be filled with the precious things in your life; and that your trading account can also be fulfilled.

Here are a few ideas to look at for short term trading opportunities.

_____Longs_____

BBCN

(Pullback into the Triple Trender within a flag breakout pattern, and Radar2 Price Leader preparing to give a buy signal ).

FTI

(A pullback into resistance after a flag pattern breakout. This one created a ‘Bullish Trend Divergence” ).

_____Short_____

FDS

(Bearish Triple Trender alignment with recent cross into bearish Radar3 Trend Strength indication. Potential Bear Flag breakout ).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.

Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report December 12

Welcome to Hawk’s Scan Sentry Report, where equities trading ideas are provided by the powerful scanning tools of the Arps Scan Sentry Toolkit. This is Sunday night with equities analysis for the week beginning December 12.

The selections from last week did very well with each of the four I discussed (both long and short) ending the week in the plus column.

This week, as we look at the American stock market in general,  the index futures contracts will expire; and, as we begin the week, all 4 major US indexes are up against near-term resistance. We are getting mixed signals from our Radar tools depending on which index we are analyzing. Looking at daily charts of the 4 major US equity indexes we see diminishing acceleration in the Radar 2  Price Leader on all of them, weak signals in both directions from the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator,  while the Radar 3 Trend Strength is still bullish on all the indexes. Of the 4 indexes, the Dow seems to be the strongest while currently the NASDAQ is the weakest. As we look at the futures contracts themselves we see that, in each case, the current contract (December 2011) , which as noted expires this week, is trading at a premium to the index which it follows; while the forward contracts (March 2012) are unanimously trading at a discount. To me this identifies a slightly bullish sentiment for the first part of this week. In the S&P contract our current short-term trading range is between 1225 and 1265, so we’ll be watching to see if either of those levels get broken and retested. Of course we’ll be looking at both long and short opportunities in order to take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves.

Here are some of the stocks I’m looking at into the end of the year.

_____Longs_____

PPC

(Recent breakout from the flag pattern with all 3 Radars and Trenders bullish. I especially like that Radar1 Fear/Greed recently made new highs).

GIS

(Another breakout from consolidation with confirmation from all three Radars and Trenders. Beware if Radar2 Price Leader crosses below the centerline ).

N

(Another nice flag breakout with no more resistance to the upside! This one may still want to pull back to support around $43.90 again before completing the measured move of the flag pattern ).

_____Shorts_____

DVA

(Although this one is starting to make higher highs, I like the bearish pivot divergence in the Radar1 Fear/Greed indicator).

ANN

(I like the way that Rdar2 Price Leader is crossing under the ‘slow line’ while the recent pink cross above zero in the Radar3 Trend Strength Indicator shows that the current  bullishness in un-confirmed. I also like the Trend Exhaustion1 Overbought signal here).

FIS

(I like the Bearish Trend Divergence corresponding with the Trend Exhaustion 1 Overbought signal).

May the trend be with you,

Hawk

Jan Arps’ Traders’ Toolbox is not an investment advisory service nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities customers should buy or sell for themselves. Examples presented on this site are for educational purposes only.  It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these examples will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. There is a high degree of risk in trading.  Readers using this information are solely responsible for their actions and trade at their own risk. Readers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.